| 石明华,钟登华.施工导流超标洪水风险率估计的水文模拟方法[J].水利学报,1998,29(3):0030-0034 |
| 施工导流超标洪水风险率估计的水文模拟方法 |
| Estimation of over-level flood risk of construction diversion using hydrologic simulation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 施工导流 超标洪水风险率 日径流模拟 |
| 英文关键词: construction diversion over-level flood risk daily streamflow simulation |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1457 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用系统辨识技术，根据实测日径流系列建立了日径流过程的随机模拟模型. 由该模型模拟出多组导流工程服务年限中的日径流过程，经统计得出各种风险率下的设计流量与超标洪水发生次数的关系， 从而把风险率、施工年限、设计流量和超标洪水发生次数紧密联系起来， 为合理选择导流设计流量提供了依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on measured daily streamflow series, a stochastic model for daily streamflow has been developed by means of system identification technique. The method is used to generate a lot of groups of simulated daily streamflow sequences during construction diversion period. The statistical analysis of these groups gives the risk proobability corresponding to the number of time that a design discharge is exceeded. This technique takes fully into account of systematic reliability, construction period, design discharge and the duration that over-level flood occurred. It helps to determine the design discharge of diversion during construction. |
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