| 付强,王志良,梁川.多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用[J].水利学报,2002,33(8):0107-0113 |
| 多变量自回归模型在三江平原井灌水稻需水量预测中的应用 |
| Application of multi-variate auto-regression model to forecast water demand of well irrigated paddy |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 多变量自回归模型 三江平原 井灌水稻 需水量 预测 |
| 英文关键词: multi-variate auto-regression model paddy water demand well irrigated forecasting |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2064 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 应用多变量自回归模型ARV(n), 利用三江平原腹地-富锦市1985～1999年气象资料, 按水稻生育期划分6个生育阶段, 建立了井灌水稻生育期内需水量预测模型. 经模型拟合与预测, 效果良好, 可以为该地区开展节水灌溉、灌溉用水管理、合理开发利用地下水资源, 缓解地下水危机提供参考依据. |
| 英文摘要: |
| The models for forecasting water demand of paddy irrigated by well in different period of growth is established according to the meteorological data recorded in 1985-1999. The growth period is divided into 6 stages and the multi-variate auto-regression model is applied to the establishment of the forecasting model. The effectiveness of the model is verified by the measured data. |
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