| 董胜,王腾.防洪工程项目的风险评估[J].水利学报,2003,34(9):0019-0024 |
| 防洪工程项目的风险评估 |
| Risk assessment of flood control water project |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 风险评估 随机模拟技术 风险率 防洪效益 |
| 英文关键词: risk assessment stochastic simulation technique risk probability flood control benefit |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文应用蒙特卡洛法模拟产生洪水系列，以防洪工程使用期为一个时间单位，考虑资金的时间价值，对工程的减灾损失进行了计算，得到了防洪效益的概率分布模式。建立了包括经济评价、风险分析和防洪效益模拟的综合系统分析模式，提出了采用重点抽样法进行风险率的计算，同时考虑了随机变量之间相关性大小对风险率的影响，并对有关参数作出灵敏度分析，使得决策指标更加切合实际。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Regarding the lifetime of flood control water project as a time unit and considering the time value of capital, the flood loss reduction due to the project can be calculated and the probability distribution model of flood control benefit is obtained. A synthetic model is setup for economic assessment, risk analysis and flood control benefit estimation. A stochastic simulation technique is applied to calculate the risk probability based on joint probability theory. In the calculation the effect of correlation between variables on risk probability is considered. Finally, the sensitivity analysis for relevant parameters is carried out to make the index of decision making more practical. |
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