| 汪新宇,张翔,赖国伟.防洪体系超标洪水综合风险分析[J].水利学报,2004,35(2):0083-0087 |
| 防洪体系超标洪水综合风险分析 |
| Over standard integrated risk analysis of flood control system |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水文风险 工程结构可靠性 综合风险分析 |
| 英文关键词: hydrology risk engineering structure reliability integrated risk analysis |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用复合泊松模型和可靠性分析方法分别计算防洪体系超标洪水水文风险率和工程结构可靠度，将水文风险和工程结构风险视为相容事件，应用选择概率计算综合风险率，并进行综合风险分析。在澧水流域防洪体系综合风险分析中的应用，结果表明该方法具有实用性，可为江河防洪规划提供决策依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Compound Poisson model and reliability theory are respectively used to calculate hydrology risk rate and engineering structure reliability.The hydrology risk and the engineering risk are considered as compatible events.The selective probability is used to calculate the integrated risk rate of compatible events.The case study illustrates that these method are practical in integrated risk analysis of flood control system and the results of integrated risk analysis are useful in decision making for flood control planning. |
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