| 范子武,姜树海.允许风险分析方法在防洪安全决策中的应用[J].水利学报,2005,36(5):0618-0623 |
| 允许风险分析方法在防洪安全决策中的应用 |
| Application of tolerance risk analysis method in decision-making of flood prevention |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 允许风险分析 防洪风险率 生命损失 防洪决策 |
| 英文关键词: tolerance risk analysis flood prevention risk ratio loss of lives decision-making of flood prevention |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1906 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 允许风险分析方法体现了“以人为本”的防洪理念。按照防洪工程漫顶失事的逻辑过程提出了防洪风险率的定量计算方法，引入了人员伤亡预测的经验公式，讨论了制定允许风险标准问题。在此基础上，应用允许风险分析方法，定量计算骆马湖的防洪风险，对骆马湖防洪安全决策进行了评价，分析了建立洪水预警系统提高防洪安全的必要性和可行性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The tolerance risk analysis method is based on the idea of putting the safety of people as the most important thing. According to the lgic process of overtopping of flood defense projects a quantitative calculation method for flood prevention risk ratio is proposed and an empirical equation for predicting loss of lives is deduced. The tolerance risk criterion is discussed. The proposed method is applied to quantitatively calculate the flood defense risk of Luoma Lake, and the corresponding decision-making of flood prevention safety is evaluated. Finally, the feasibility of flood forecast system for improving the flood prevention safety is analyzed. |
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