| 钟登华,黄伟,安娜.基于Monte-Carlo方法的施工截流风险率估计方法研究[J].水利学报,2006,37(10):1212-1216 |
| 基于Monte-Carlo方法的施工截流风险率估计方法研究 |
| Risk estimation of river closure based on the Monte-Carlo method |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 施工截流 Monte-Carlo 风险率 绝对误差 置信度 |
| 英文关键词: river closure Monte Carlo method risk probability absolute error confidence level |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1524 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在综合考虑截流过程的水文及水力不确定性因素的基础上，建立了截流风险数学分析模型，该模型包括天然来流量和分流建筑物泄流能力、龙口泄流流量、戗堤渗流流量的模拟。通过分析模型中存在的不确定性因素，构建了相应的概率模型及其抽样公式。采用Monte-Carlo方法对模型进行随机抽样，通过统计分析，获得截流风险率的估计值。最后，采用中心极限定理，依据模拟的次数，给出截流风险率估计值的绝对误差和置信度。通过实例计算分析，验证了所建的模型正确合理。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Considering hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors during river closure,a mathematical model of risk analysis about river closure is built up. It includes simulation models of natural inflow, diversion construction discharge, closure gap discharge and dyke seepage flow. By analyzing uncertain factors existing in the model, relevant probability models and sampling formulas are given.Then Monte_Carlo method is applied to model sampling.Risk probability of river closure is acquired by sufficient times of sampling. Using central limit theorem, absolute error and confidence level of risk probability are provided according to simulation running times.In the end, one example is studied to verify the rationality of the method and model. |
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