| 龙爱华,徐中民,王浩,于福亮.水权交易对黑河干流种植业的经济影响及优化模拟[J].水利学报,2006,37(11):1329-1335 |
| 水权交易对黑河干流种植业的经济影响及优化模拟 |
| Potential impacts on plant economics of water trade in the mainbody of HeiheRiver and an optimal distribution of water entitlements |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水权交易 两部配置法 模拟分析 效益改进 |
| 英文关键词: water property trade uncertainty two part deployment method game analysis benefit improvement |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 应用博弈论思想，模拟比较了水权分配中直接比例配置法和两部配置法对黑河流域张掖市甘州、临泽、高台种植业经济效益的影响。分析结果表明：(1)水权交易可优化配置有限的水资源、实现经济增效，完全市场下水权交易可使研究区最大增加1.338 5亿元／年的经济收益，来水较丰(10％和25％保证率)年的水权交易收益增长高于平水和欠丰年(50％和75％保证率)，建立完善、广泛的水权交易市场机制是适应未来变化、实现水资源高效配置的适应对策之一；(2)水权交易的内在机制在于因生产结构、生产效率等而异的用水效益异质性和缺水状况；(3)两部配置法比直接比例法更符合高效、稳定且又不失公平的水管理准则，同时可降低水资源系统本身不确定性导致农业经济不稳定的风险。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To mitigate the uncertainty of hydrological system, which would enlarge the uncertainty of water property trade, the paper introduced a two part deployment method of water resource property, and stimulated the efficiency of water property trade based on the game theory, with a case in the main body of Zhangye prefecture in Heihe River basin, including Ganzhou, Linze and Gaotai counties. The results showed that: (1) water property trade would result in a potential maximum benefit of 133.85×10 6RMB/yr; (2) The feasibility of application of water trade depends on the heterogeneity of the player in the game coalition; (3) two part deployment method is better than the conventional direct ratio method which is based on the ratio of water system runoff, especially in view of reducing the uncertainty of water property trade due to the uncertainty of hydrological system and increasing the economic benefits. The simulation suggests the two part deployment method be implemented in the water property management in arid and semi arid regions. |
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