| 史良胜,杨金忠,蔡树英.基于降雨空间变异的潜水运动随机模拟方法Ⅱ——条件模拟[J].水利学报,2007,38(5):524-528 |
| 基于降雨空间变异的潜水运动随机模拟方法Ⅱ——条件模拟 |
| Stochastic simulation of groundwater flow subject to spatial variable precipitation Ⅱ——conditional simulation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 条件模拟 标准差 水头 流速 水动力弥散系数 |
| 英文关键词: groundwater flow stochastic simulation spatial variable precipitation conditional simulation pressure velocity hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 建立了降雨空间变异条件下基于KLPC解法的潜水运动条件模拟方法，假设平面上若干测点的降雨量已知，分析了当随机模型中加入雨量站观测值时水头、流速和水动力弥散系数标准差的变化情况。研究结果表明：在条件模拟中，由于降雨协方差具有非平稳结构，需要采用数值解法来求解Fredholm方程；条件模拟方法计算出的水头、流速和水动力弥散系数的标准差要小于非条件模拟的结果；在降雨空间变异条件下，降雨的相关长度越大，方差越大，条件模拟对水头标准差削减越明显；与水头相比，条件模拟下流速和水动力弥散系数的标准差的消减更为明显，因此在考虑降雨的空间变异性时，条件模拟可减小溶质运移输入参数的不确定性具有一定作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the Karhunen Loeve expansion and polynomial chaos expansion (KLPC), a model for conditional simulation of groundwater flow under the condition of spatial variable precipitation is established. The variation of standard deviation of pressure head, velocity and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient is analyzed when observed precipitation data are taken into account. It is found that the Fredholm equation should be solved numerically because of the nonstationarity of the covariance function. The variability of the pressure head, velocity and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient obtained from conditional simulation are smaller than those obtained from unconditional simulation. When space correlation length or variance of the rainfall increase, the reduction of the overall pressure head variability due to the difference of simulation will increase at the same time. The reduction of the standard deviation of velocity and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient exhibits more obviously. It is concluded that the conditional simulation is effective in reducing the uncertainty of the input parameters in stochastic analysis of solute transport. |
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