基于不确定信息的城市水源水环境健康风险评价

李如忠

文章摘要

李如忠.基于不确定信息的城市水源水环境健康风险评价[J].水利学报,2007,38(8):895-900

基于不确定信息的城市水源水环境健康风险评价

Assessment for environmental health of urban water supply source based on uncertain information

DOI：

英文关键词: uncertain information urban water source risk assessment of environmental health triangular fuzzy parameter αcut technique

基金项目:

作者	单位
李如忠	合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院，安徽合肥 230009

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中文摘要:

运用模糊集理论将风险评价模型的参数定义为三角模糊数，构建了水环境健康风险评价模糊模型。应用该模型不仅能够得到健康风险的各种可能值，也可以得到每一可能值对应的隶属度(或相对可信度)。而由α截集技术，还可以进一步得到相应于不同可信度水平α的健康风险值区间。将该模糊模型应用于华北地区某城市地下水源的环境健康风险评价研究，结果表明：地下水中三氯乙烯、四氯乙烯的致癌风险均超过美国国家环保局推荐的可接受风险(1.0×10-4)，可能的变化范围分别为2.06×10-4～22.03×10-4和3.67×10-4～33.29×10-4，相应的最可能风险值分别是7.22×10-4和11.54×10-4；四氯化碳虽也存在超标的可能，但情况并不严重，在不计其它污染物带来的致癌风险的情况下，受污染水源水环境健康危害总风险的可能变化区间为5.86×10-4～56.67×10-4，最可能风险值为19.21×10-4。实例研究表明，以模糊集理论评价水环境健康风险水平是可行的。

英文摘要:

The fuzzy set theory is applied to define the parameters of assessment model as triangular fuzzy parameters to establish a fuzzy risk assessment model for environmental health. This method can solve the problems happened to conventional risk assessment methods including the errors due to the uncertainty of assessment system and scarcity of available data. By using this model not only the value of probable risk indexes of specific substance influencing peo ple's health but also their corresponding membership degrees(or relative confidence levels) can be obtained. The αcut technique helps to further convert the fuzzy risk into an interval value corresponding to the confidence level of α. The model is applied to assess the environmental health risk of the groundwater in a typical organic contaminated area in North China. The result shows that the cancerous risk indexes caused by TCE and PCE exceed the acceptable levels recommended by U. S. EPA. The most likely risk values of TCE and PCE are 7.22×10-4and 11.54×10-4 respectively. The most probable value of cancerous risk index for polluted groundwater supply source is 19.21×10-4.

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