| 马忠,徐中民.改进的假设抽取法在产业部门用水关联分析中的应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(2): |
| 改进的假设抽取法在产业部门用水关联分析中的应用 |
| Application of modified hypothetical extraction method to linkage analysis of water use among industrial sectors |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 投入产出 水利用 产业关联 纵向集成消耗 假设抽取法 |
| 英文关键词: input output water use industries linkage vertically integrated consumption modified hypothetical extraction method |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 应用在纵向集成测算法及假设抽取法(HEM)基础上改进的产业用水关联分析方法，根据中国2000年水利用投入产出表数据，通过直接消耗水量与纵向集成消耗水量的对比，以及关联度分解因子构成分析，定量测算了产业部门间用水的关联作用。分析结果表明：(1)直接用水量最高的农业、轻工业、重工业部门，分别将其直接用水量的39.3％、26.4％、19.5％通过产业间产品交易间接输送给其余产业部门。其余产业部门为用水净输入部门，最终需求产品用水的90％以上间接来自购买其他部门的产品。其中农业、食品制造业在整个经济系统中用水输出和输入作用最为显著；(2)水利用部门的关联实际上是经济系统产业间水需求的转移，最终需求总量不变时，其结构调整不会对用水总量产生影响；(3)可以通过虚拟水战略等手段调整高用水系数部门的最终需求规模以缓解水资源供需矛盾，促进节水技术的提高以及节水结构的优化；(4)纵向集成测算法及其基础上改进的HEM法将系数比较转化为实际用水数量的分析，分解出影响部门用水的组成因素，量化了部门间以及部门内部用水关联关系。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The modified hypothetical extraction method and vertically integrated measures are applied to analyze the linkages of water use among industrial sectors. By comparing the direct water consumption with vertical integrated water consumption base on the input_output data of water utilization in 2000, China, and using the analysis on composition factors of linkages the linkage effect of water use among industrial sectors can be quantitatively calculated. The result shows that: 1. the agriculture, light industry and heavy industry transfer 39.3%, 26.4% and 19.5% of their water consumption to all other sectors respectively, which are net importers of water with 90% of indirect water consumption of their final product purchased from other sectors; 2.the linkage of water use among sectors in economic system is actually the transfer of water demand among the sectors of industries; 3.the contradiction between water supply and water demand can be alleviated by adjusting the high water use coefficient sectors through the measures of virtue water strategy; 4.comparing with the traditional linkage analysis method, the proposed methodology can quantified the linkage analysis of water use more explicitly. |
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