束龙仓,陶玉飞,刘佩贵.考虑水文地质参数不确定性的地下水补给量可靠度计算[J].水利学报,2008,39(3): |
考虑水文地质参数不确定性的地下水补给量可靠度计算 |
Reliability calculation method for groundwater recharge in consideration of uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters |
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DOI: |
中文关键词: 水文地质参数 可靠度 不确定性 地下水补给量 |
英文关键词: hydrogeological parameter reliability uncertainty amount of groundwater recharge |
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中文摘要: |
以山东省济宁市为例,考虑各水文地质参数的不确定性对地下水补给量计算结果的影响。计算主要包括大气降水入渗补给、浅层侧向补给和深层侧向补给三部分。在大气降水入渗补给量的计算中,运用水文统计理论和方法,得到了相应于丰水年、平水年、枯水年的年降水量,从而得到不同水平年的降水入渗补给量。然后考虑水文地质参数的不同分布概型,计算了两种不同分布概型下的地下水补给量的可靠度。计算结果表明,按传统方法的计算,平水年时补给量为14.286×10.4m3/年,但此补给量的可靠度在两个方案中均不足50%。最后对参数的变异系数的取值进行了分析,结果表明,参数的变异系数越大,计算得到的补给量的离散程度也越大。 |
英文摘要: |
The reliability of groundwater recharge in the Jining City, Shandong Province, is calculated in consideration of uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters. The total groundwater recharge is composed of three parts: the precipitation infiltration recharge, shallow lateral recharge and deep lateral recharge. Based on hydrological statistics theory the amounts of precipitation in wet years, normal years and dry years are obtained respectively, so that the precipitation infiltration recharge in each typical year can be calculated. The amount of lateral recharges are calculated based on two scenarios with different types of probability distribution of hydrogeological parameters. The result shows that the amount of recharge using the traditional calculation method is 142.86×106m3/a. However, the corresponding reliabilities of both scenarios are less than 50%. The further investigation reveals that the larger variation of the parameters results in higher degree of deviation of calculation result. |
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