| 郭文献,夏自强,王鸿翔,张运鑫.近50年来长江宜昌站水温变化的多尺度分析[J].水利学报,2008,39(11): |
| 近50年来长江宜昌站水温变化的多尺度分析 |
| Multiple scale analysis on water temperature variation of Yichang Hydrological Station in recent 50 years |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 小波分析 长江 水温 时间尺度 |
| 英文关键词: wavelet analysis water temperature time scale periodic variation prediction |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 3805 |
| 全文下载次数: 1907 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 基于1956～2006年月均水温和年均水温资料，采用复Morlet小波函数，对长江中游宜昌水文站近50年来河流水温的年内变化和年际变化时间序列进行了小波分析，揭示了宜昌水文站水温变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构，分析了不同时间尺度下水温序列变化的周期和突变点，并根据主周期对未来水温变化进行了预测。结果表明，近50年来宜昌站河流水温变化具有多层次的时间尺度结构，年水温和各季节水温均存在10～16年和4～6年左右时间尺度的周期变化，水温变化的阶段性特征明显。经水温变化趋势分析，2006～2008年左右年均水温处于偏高期，在2009～2012年左右水温将偏低。该研究结果为长江中游宜昌江段重要水生生物动态变化的水温响应研究提供了参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| On the basis of the monthly and annual mean water temperature data from 1956 to 2000, the time series of annual and inter annual water temperature variation of the Yichang Hydrological Station, located at the middle reach of the Yangzte River, were analyzed by using Morlet wavelet transformation. The complicated structure of multiple scale time series of water temperature variation was revealed and the periodic oscillation and the points of abrupt change at different scales were obtained. The tendency of water temperature was predicted on the basis of the main period. The results show that there are obvious periodic variations with scales 10～16 years and 4～6 years for annual and seasonal respectively. According to the tendency analysis the predicted annual mean water temperature in 2006～2008 is deviated to higher and that in 2009～2012 will be deviated to lower. These results provide the reference for the study on aquatic organism change response to water temperature variation. |
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