|Model for evaluating water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability and its application
|中文关键词: 模糊概率 Logistic回归模型 判别分析 水资源短缺风险 敏感因子 北京
|英文关键词: fuzzy probability logistic regression model discrimination alaysis water shortage risk comprehensive evaluation sensitive factors Beijing City
| Based on the theory of fuzzy probability, a model which can be used to comprehensively evaluate both the probability and the impact degree due to water shortage risk is developed. In the model a membership function is constructed to evaluate the fuzziness of water resources systems, and a logistic regression model for simulating and forecasting the occurrence probability of water shortage risk is established. On this basis, an evaluation model for water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability is obtained. The sensitive factors of water shortage risk are identified by discrimination analysis. As an example, the water shortage risk of Beijing City from 1979 to 2005 is analyzed. The result indicates that the quantities of water resources, sewage discharge, agricultural water consumption and domestic water consumption are main factors affecting the risk of water shortage. After taking measures of promoting the water reuse and receiving the water provided by South to North Water Transfer Project, the water shortage risk of Beijing City in 2010 to 2020 can be reduced to a comparative low level.