| 江介伦,刘子明,童庆斌,蔡光荣.基于不同大气环流模型评估气候变迁对高屏溪流域河川流量的影响[J].水利学报,2010,41(2): |
| 基于不同大气环流模型评估气候变迁对高屏溪流域河川流量的影响 |
| Evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources derived from various general circulation models |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 水资源 大气环流模型 |
| 英文关键词: climate change water resources GCM |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 3238 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以五种大气环流模型（GCM）统计的雨量资料进行降雨比值分析，再由降雨资料用GWLF水文模型进行水文模拟，从而分析了气候变化对高屏溪流域河川径流的影响。分析结果表明未来丰水期水量上升，而枯水期流量呈现小幅减少趋势。各模型的变化范围随未来时间发生变化，即时间愈长其变化愈大。枯水期各模型的变化范围为-26%~+15%，而丰水期的变化范围为-10%~+82%。其中在区域经济发展极不均衡的（A2）情景下，枯水期各模型的变化范围为-26%~+13%，而丰水期的变化范围为-10%~+66%；而在区域经济可持续发展的（B2）情景下，枯水期各模型的变化范围为-18%~+15%，而丰水期的变化范围为-3%~+82%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper discuss and compare the different temporal and spatial distribution of simulated rainfall data which are obtained by different General Circulation Models including CGCM2， CCCSR/NIES， ECHAM4， HadCM3 and etc. The water resource system of Gaopingxi basin was simulated in order to analyze the possible impact on water resources in the region and to compare the diverse outcome resulted from different models. The analysis shows that，under the impact of climate change，the river discharge of wet season will increase obviously， and the discharge of dry season will decrease. It is fount that the Discharge obtained from different models is in the range of -26%~+15% in dry season, and -10%~+82% in wet season. |
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