| 康 玲,何小聪,熊其玲.基于贝叶斯网络理论的南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J].水利学报,2010,41(8): |
| 基于贝叶斯网络理论的南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析 |
| Risk analysis for precipitation rich-poor encounter between source area and receiving area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project Based on Bayes-net theory |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 贝叶斯网络 丰枯遭遇 风险分析 南水北调 |
| 英文关键词: Bayes-net theory precipitation rich-poor encounter water source area water receiving area risk anaysis Middle-Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于贝叶斯网络理论对南水北调中线工程水源区和4个受水区的降水丰枯遭遇进行了深入的分析研究，建立了贝叶斯网络丰枯遭遇风险管理模型，定量直观地描述了水源区与4个受水区之间复杂的降水丰枯组合关系，对模型中各结点的参数进行了辨识，计算了水源区与各受水区不同的丰枯组合状态对调水不利的风险概率。通过所建模型的贝叶斯网络推理功能，对南水北调中线工程未来运行中可能发生的丰枯遭遇及其风险进行了仿真研究，该成果将为南水北调中线水资源调度提供科学的决策依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The theory of Bayes-net is applied to analyze the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation between water source area and water receiving area of the Middle Route
South-to-North Water Transfer Project. A Bayes-net synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk management
model is established and the relationship between source area and receiving area with complicated
combination of precipitation rich-poor are quantitatively described. The parameters at the nodes of the model are identified. The unfavorable risk probability of water transfer due to different combination of rich and poor precipitation between source area and receiving area are calculated. The ratiocinative ability of Bayes-net is utilized to simulate the potential encounter states in some certain situations which may happen in the future of the management of the project，and the risk of water transfer is forecasted. |
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