| 王 冰,冯 平.梯级水库联合防洪应急调度模式及其风险评估[J].水利学报,2011,42(2): |
| 梯级水库联合防洪应急调度模式及其风险评估 |
| Emergency operation model for cascade reservoirs and its risk evaluation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水库 防洪 应急调度 风险评估 风险度 |
| 英文关键词: reservoir flood control emergency operation risk evaluation risk degree |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：以岗南、黄壁庄梯级水库为例，拟定了水库应急调度规则，提出了应急调度风险评估的方法，给出了漫坝
危险度、易损度和风险度的定量标准。并对岗南、黄壁庄梯级水库两种应急调度模式下的风险情况进行了评估。
结果表明：在合理的应急调度模式下，突发事件导致水库漫坝失事可能性较小，均属于低度危险，应急调度是一
种有效减少洪灾损失的非工程措施；由于梯级水库下游人口、设施众多，梯级水库漫坝易损度较高，有效的应急
调度模式也可以最大限度地减轻洪灾损失。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: Based on the study on Gangnan and Huangbizhuang Reservoirs，Hebei Province，China，the
emergency operation rules for cascade， reservoirs are suggested. The risk evaluation method of reservoir emergency operation which contains the quantitative description of danger degree，vulnerability and risk degree of flood overtopping was applied. The results show that by applying the appropriate emergency operation models，the probability of dam overtopping caused by unexpected accident is low which indicates that emergency operation is one of the effective non-engineering measures to reduce flood disaster loss. Since large population and a lot of engincering stractures are located in the downslream of reservoirs，the vulnera-bilities of cascade reservoirs’ flood overtopping are high， and effective emergency operation models can largely reduce flood damage. |
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