| 李春红,王建平,王玉华,任立良.三峡特大流域洪水预报方案运用与分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(5): |
| 三峡特大流域洪水预报方案运用与分析 |
| Operation and analysis of flood forecasting scheme for the Three Gorges Project |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 三峡水库 洪水预报 分级预报 未来降雨 实时校正 |
| 英文关键词: Three Gorges reservoir flood forecast cascaded forecast coming rainfall real-time correction |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 三峡工程流域地质特征复杂，暴雨中心多，洪水组成类型多种多样，采用单一模型难以适应各种不同情况的来水预报，需要多模型、多方案的组合预报互为补充。基于572个遥测站点，制作了三峡工程以上覆盖面积约39万km2的流域洪水预报方案。通过2008年汛期7场洪水的检验，证明方案可行、满足需要。洪水预报实践经验表明：多模型多方案组合预报、半分布式模型选用和通过相关关系确定各单元河网汇流参数以及流域分级预报、逐级检验是大型、特大型流域预报方案成功制作的关键；同时未来降雨接入、实时校正是提高实时预报精度、增长预见期的有效手段。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since the geomorphology characteristic of river basin in the Three Gorges Project is complicated
and the storm rainfall possesses multiple centroid，the flood occurred to the project will be com-posed of various types. It is necessary to establish a combined flood forecasting scheme integrated with multiple model and multiple operation scheme to be adapted to this complicated situation. A flo-od forecasting scheme based on 572 telemetered gauging stations was developed. Its feasibility was verified by the examination of 7 flooding events in 2008. It is found from the practice that the com-bined forecast of subcatchment-based multi-model and multi-scheme is suitable to be use in large-scale basins. |
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