| 马荣,石建省,刘继朝,张翼龙.基于含水层渗透系数研究的云-Markov 模型的建立与应用[J].水利学报,2012,43(7): |
| 基于含水层渗透系数研究的云-Markov 模型的建立与应用 |
| Establishment and application of Cloud-Markov model based on aquifer hydraulic conductivity |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 云-Markov模型 渗透系数 误差 粒径 预测 |
| 英文关键词: Cloud-Markov model Hydraulic conductivity Error Grain size Predict |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2599 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过建立云-Markov模型对含水层渗透系数进行预测。利用云模型中的多条件多规则不确定推理技术，根据样品的粒径分布对渗透系数进行预测，并对其进行误差分析；在此基础上利用权Markov原理对预测误差的随机性进行模拟，进而根据此模拟值对云模型的预测结果进行校正，将校正后的预测值作为云-Markov模型最终的计算结果输出，即完成对一个沉积样品渗透系数的预测。将该模型应用于华北平原典型地区冲洪积扇含水层参数研究，计算结果表明：与渗透系数的实测值相比，云模型的误差相对数介于0.62~1.34间，通过权Markov误差校正后，云-Markov模型的误差相对数为0.74~1.27。与传统经验公式相比，云和云-Markov模型的计算精度均满足地下水资源评价的要求，其中云-Markov模型具有更高的计算精度和广泛的使用范围，但其同时也具有较高的计算成本。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| A new model Cloud-Markov has been developed to accurately estimate the hydraulic conductivity in this paper. The model mainly includes two steps： first， the cloud model is employed to predict the hydraulic conductivity of sediment according to its grain size distribution； and then the weight Markov theory is used to simulate the randomness of prediction error distribution. The simulated value of weight Markov theory is employed to correct the predicted results of cloud model. The corrected predicted result is output as the final calculation result of the Cloud-Markov model. This model has been applied to a typical region in the southeast Hutuo River alluvial-pluvial fan in the North China Plain. The results indicate that comparing with hydraulic conductivity measured by permeameter test， the error relative number listed between 0.62~1.34， through the weight Markov method error correction， the error relative number concentrated to 0.74~1.27. Compared with the empirical formulas， the prediction accuracy of both Cloud and Cloud-Markov model satisfies the requirement of groundwater resource evaluation. The Cloud-Markov has higher calculation accuracy and wider application range. |
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