文章摘要
闫宝伟,郭生练.考虑洪水过程预报误差的水库防洪调度风险分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(7):
考虑洪水过程预报误差的水库防洪调度风险分析
Risk estimation of reservoir flood operation in consideration of inflow hydrograph forecasting error
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 风险分析  随机微分  洪水预报误差  预报调度
英文关键词: risk analysis  stochastic differential equations  flood forecasting error  flood control operation
基金项目:
作者单位
闫宝伟 1. 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院，湖北武汉430074；2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北武汉430072 
郭生练 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北武汉430072 
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中文摘要:
      根据洪水预报确定性系数的定义，推导了洪水过程相对预报误差的标准差与确定性系数的关系，分析了洪水过程预报误差的分布规律；采用水库调洪演算的随机微分方程，解析了方差率与预报误差分布规律的关系，从而将洪水过程预报误差的不确定性转化为库水位过程的不确定性，借以分析水库防洪预报调度的风险水平。以隔河岩水库为例，计算了不同洪水预报精度下水库防洪调度的极限风险率和漫坝风险率，为隔河岩水库开展洪水预报调度提供了科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Based on the definition of determination coefficient of flood forecasting， the relationship between forecasting standard error and coefficient of determination was deduced and the forecasting error distribution of reservoir in flow hydrograph was analyzed. The stochastic differential equations （SDEs） were applied to reservoir flood routing for risk estimation of reservoir flood operation. The uncertainty of inflow hydrograph forecasting error was transformed into that of reservoir water level， through the derivation of relation between variance rate of SDEs and standard error of inflow forecasting error. The Geheyan reservoir was selected as a case study. Extreme and overtopping risks of the reservoir under different forecasting accuracy were estimated，which can provide the guide to reservoir flood control.
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