| 林青,徐绍辉.基于GLUE 方法的饱和多孔介质中溶质运移模型参数不确定性分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(9): |
| 基于GLUE 方法的饱和多孔介质中溶质运移模型参数不确定性分析 |
| Parameter uncertainty analysis of solute transport in saturated porous media based on GLUE method |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: GLUE方法 溶质运移模型 参数 不确定性 区域敏感度 |
| 英文关键词: GLUE method solute transport models parameter uncertainty regionalized sensitivity |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 模型参数的不确定性分析是模型不确定性研究的重要内容之一。本文以示踪剂Br和反应性溶质Cu在石英砂中的运移为例，采用GLUE方法探讨了多孔介质中溶质运移模型参数的不确定性。研究结果表明，仅对水力学参数θs和λ进行识别时，θs和λ的可识别性较强。对耦合Freundlich等温吸附的模型参数进行识别时，由于参数间的相互作用，θs和λ的可识别性降低；吸附特性参数kF 的后验分布基本呈均匀分布，可识别性较差，吸附特性参数β、ω、f 的取值区间则相对收敛，可识别性较强。K-S 检验结果表明，参数区域敏感度由高到底的排序为f、ω、β、kF、λ、θs，主要是因为石英砂对Cu的吸附以动力学反应为主，而f 和ω是与动力学吸附反应相关的两个参数。上述结论有助于加深对溶质运移模型参数的理解和提高模型预测的可靠性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Parameter is one of the key roles in analyzing model uncertainty. In this paper the GLUE method was employed to discuss parameter uncertainty of solute transport models， with the tracer Br and reactive solute Cu transport in quartz sand column as an example. The results show that when only θs and λ were optimized the uncertainty was low. The narrowed ranges of θs and λ were then used to analyse the uncertainty in the identification of parameters in CDE coupled with Freundlich adsorption. The analysis resulted in a large uncertainty in θs，λ，kF and small uncertainty in β，ω，f. The uncertainty of θs and λ were increased than before for the correlation of parameters θs，λ，kF，β，ω，f. Regional sensitivity of these parameters in non-ascending order were f， ω， β， kF， λ and θs as a result of that the sorption of Cu to quartz sand was kinetic， and f， ω were both closely related to the non-equilibrium adsorptive reaction. The conclusion is favorable for thoroughly understanding parameters of solute transport model and improving the reliability of the model prediction. |
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