| 高世丰,叶一隆,邹祎.高屏溪流域区域降雨特性分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(11): |
| 高屏溪流域区域降雨特性分析 |
| Regional rainfall characteristic analysis for the Kaoping River Basin |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 降雨特性 非参数统计方法 趋势检定 气候变化 高屏溪流域 |
| 英文关键词: Rainfall characteristic Nonparametric statistical methods Trend test Climate change Kao-Ping River Basin |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 主要探讨气候变化下高屏溪流域的降雨变化趋势。首先将高屏溪流域依据潮州断层划分为山区与平原两个区域，利用Mann-Whitney-Pettit（t MWP）检定、Mann-Kendall趋势检定及t值检定等非参数统计方法，探讨山区及平原年降雨量、年一日最大降雨量、年降雨天数、年降雨强度及各季节降雨类型的差异及变化趋势。分析结果显示，山区及平原区在降雨强度上具有显著增加趋势，其发生显著变化的变异时间均分布在2000—2004 年。因此，将数据变异点划分为前后两个样本，各测站在变异点之后发生超大暴雨事件的频率较变异点前有较大增加，其变异点之前山区平均发生超大暴雨事件的频率约2年一遇，平原区约8年一遇；变异点后山区约1年二遇，平原则2年一遇。各季节降雨类型检定中，台风季具有显著差异，于变异点后呈现增大现象，显示1980—2009年期间的降雨量在丰水期间有显著增加趋势且主要集中在台风季节，而枯水期间则无显著变化趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study attempted to examine rainfall change tendency in Kaoping River basin under the climatic change condition. The basin was divided into the mountain and the flat regions along the Chaozhou fault in the basin. Nonparametric methods including the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt （MWP） test，the Mann-Kendall tendency test， and t test were used to analyse the difference and tendency of annual rainfall， maximum daily rainfall， annual rainfall days， annual rainfall intensity， and seasonal rainfall types. The analysis results show that the tendency of rainfall amounts and intensity have obviously increased in both mountain and the flat regions. The remarkable change periods were occurred ranging from years 2000 to 2004. Therefore， the data were divided into two time periods based on the change point. Before the change point， the frequencies of strong torrential rain events were once per 2 and 8 years for mountain and flat regions， respectively. However，after change point the frequencies were increased to two times per year in mountain region and once two year in flat region. In the various season rainfall type tests， however， the rainfall was shown increase in the typhoon season only after the change point. This demonstrated that the rainfall has increased tendency in wet season in the period 1980—2009， especially concentrates in the typhoon season，but the rainfall has not remarkable change tendency in dry season. |
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