| 刘绿柳,姜彤,徐金阁,罗勇.西江流域水文过程的多气候模式多情景研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(12): |
| 西江流域水文过程的多气候模式多情景研究 |
| Research on the hydrological processes using Multi-GCMs and Multi-scenarios in the Xijiang River basin |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 西江流域 HBV-D GCMs 多情景预估 径流 洪水频率 |
| 英文关键词: Xijiang River basin HBV-D GCMs multi-scenarios projection runoff flood frequency |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 应用HBV-D水文模型和IPCC AR4 提供的气候模拟数据，对西江流域的逐日径流过程进行了多气候模式、多温室气体排放情景模拟。在此基础上基于模拟资料和观测资料分析了流域过去及未来气候和水资源变化趋势，应用Wakeby广义极值分布函数分析了洪水强度和频率的变化。结果表明：（1）HBV-D模型在模拟西江流域逐日径流过程表现出较高性能，所选GCMs可客观反映研究区气温和降水变化，Wakeby函数能较好地拟合多时段多情景的洪水序列。（2）与全球升温趋势一致，流域气温也呈上升趋势，以夏季升温最为显著，且高排放情景升温趋势高于较低排放情景，高排放情景到2080s 年均气温约升高2.9°C。（3）1960—2006 年年降水量和年径流量呈减少趋势，未来则呈增加趋势，且未来长期变化大于中期变化，中期变化大于短期变化。（4）洪水强度随预估时间延长逐渐增强、频率逐渐增加，到2080s洪量可达基准期的1.3倍，重现期由30年缩短到2~10年。丰水期径流以及洪水强度增强、频率增加将给西江流域水资源管理特别是防汛抗洪增加压力，并可能对现有一些防洪工程造成威胁。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Changes of climate and runoff in the past and future were analyzed using observation and simulation from three GCMs and hydrological model HBV-D for control period and the 21st century under three GHG emission scenarios. Then the following conclusions are drawn. （1） Hydrological model HBV-D shows good performance in simulating daily discharge through the outlet of Xijiang River from the results of calibration and validation. The changes of temperature and precipitation can be simulated by three GCMs selected. The Wakeby function fits flood series well in different periods under different scenarios. （2） Consist with rising trend in global temperature， rising trends are also discovered in annual average temperature in the past and in the future. It will rise 2.9℃ in 2080s under SRES A2. The rising trends are significant in Summer， and more significant under high emission scenario than under low scenario. （3） Annual precipitation and runoff decreased in the past. However， they will increase in the future with larger amplitude in long-term than mid-term， and mid-term than short-term. （4） Upward trends are discovered in precipitation and runoff during high flow period， but downward trends during low flow period in future. （5） The flood will gradually increase with time， up to 1.3 times that during baseline. At the same time， more and more flood will occur. In 2080s， the recurrence of 30-year flood becomes 2~10 years in 2080s. As results， some flood-prevention constructions will be threatened. Flood controls in the Xijiang basin will be challenged by more and severer floods. |
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