| 严登华,袁喆,王浩,杨志勇.水文学确定性和不确定性方法及其集合研究进展[J].水利学报,2013,44(1): |
| 水文学确定性和不确定性方法及其集合研究进展 |
| Progress of certainty and uncertainty methods of hydrologic and the framework of ensemble analysis |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 变化环境 确定性 不确定性 集合 |
| 英文关键词: environmental change certainty uncertainty ensemble |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在气候变化和人类活动加剧的背景下，极端水文事件发生频率日益增加、发生时间有所改变，所造成的灾害也日趋加重。因此，如何采取科学合理的水文学方法模拟水文过程、预测水文现象是应对水灾害的重要技术手段。本文分析了水文学确定性方法和不确定性方法国内外的发展历程，系统剖析了各种方法的优点以及存在的问题，初步提出了集合研究的框架，包括：（1）不确定性方法的内部集合；（2）确定性方法和不确定性方法的外部集合（过程集合和结果集合）。在此基础上，指出了两类方法集合过程中的若干问题。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the background of climate change and human activities，the frequency of extreme hydrological events is increased，the occurrence time is different and the loss caused by the disaster is more serious. It is important to simulate and predict the hydrology process with the scientific and reasonable technological methods. This paper reviewed the development courses of both hydrological certainty and uncertainty methods，and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of methods. Based on the above，the framework for the ensemble of certainty and uncertainty methods is put forward， including the internal ensemble of different uncertainty method， and the external ensemble of certainty methods and uncertainty methods. At last，some key problems during the process of ensemble were proposed. |
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