| 于晶.基于图模型的流域上下游水质污染冲突研究[J].水利学报,2013,44(12): |
| 基于图模型的流域上下游水质污染冲突研究 |
| Research on the water pollution conflict between the upstream area and the downstream area in a river basin based on GMCR |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 图模型 不确定偏好 冲突分析 水质污染 |
| 英文关键词: graph model uncertain preference conflict analysis water pollution |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过对决策者、策略、状态转移及不确定偏好信息的识别、分析和确定，建立了分析流域上下游水质污染冲突的图模型， 并对模型下第三方干预冲突的成功性进行了分析和预测。从4 种稳定性（Nash、GMR、SMR、SEQ）及其4种扩展形式（a，b，c，d）的定义出发，分别寻求简单偏好和不确定偏好下的均衡解，并对其进行对比分析。通过决策路径分析和现状分析直观地预测了整个冲突事态的演化路径，从而验证了模型的有效性，为决策者对整个冲突事态的掌控提供了决策依据。敏感性分析结果表明决策者的态度和偏好对冲突的解决至关重要。最后将图模型应用于太湖流域上下游水质污染冲突的实例研究中，其分析结果与实际冲突发展相吻合。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| A graph model for the water pollution conflict between the upstream and the downstream regions in a river basin is established through identifying， analyzing and determining the decision makers， options， feasible states， allowable state transitions and uncertain preferences. The overall success of the third party intervention in the given conflict is analyzed and predicted under the framework of GMCR. According to four stability definitions （Nash， GMR， SMR， SEQ） and their four extensions （a， b， c， d）， equilibriums under simple preference and uncertain preference are found and compared. The aims of the decision-making path analysis and status quo analysis are to predict the evolution paths of the whole conflict，verify the validity of the model and provide an important decision basis for policy makers. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that the attitudes and preferences of the decision makers play a vital role in resolving conflicts. Finally，the graph model established is applied to the study of the water pollution conflict in the Taihu Basin，and the analysis results coincide with the actual development of the conflict. |
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