| 宋新山,严登华,王宇晖,王苑.基于Markov 模型分析黄淮海中东部地区540 年来的旱涝演变特征[J].水利学报,2013,44(12): |
| 基于Markov 模型分析黄淮海中东部地区540 年来的旱涝演变特征 |
| Analysis on the evolution of drought and flood class in the east-central Huang-Huai-Hai plain over the last 540 years basing on Markov model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 黄淮海中东部地区 Markov模型 旱涝演变 持续时间 重现时间 |
| 英文关键词: East-central Huang-Huai-Hai plain Markov model drought and flood evolution duration time recurrence time |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究黄淮海中东部地区的旱涝演变过程对于揭示其变化规律，实施灾害风险管理具有重要意义。在收集黄淮海中下游16 个代表站541 年的旱涝状态历史数据的基础上，利用Markov模型获得不同旱涝状态发生的稳定概率、期望持续时间、重现时间、各旱涝状态转向干旱状态的平均持续时间，以及旱涝事件1~3年的转移概率。结果表明：研究区域长期以来总体上以偏旱和干旱多发为主；黄河流域中游具有干旱多发、连发特征，海河流域次之，淮河流域具有洪涝多发、连发的特征；唐山、保定、石家庄、天津、北京以及郑州存在干旱、洪涝连发特征，但总体上干旱重于洪涝；榆林、延安、临汾、太原、西安更易发生2 年以上的连旱，而洪涝不易连发；阜阳、蚌埠、菏泽和临沂易发洪涝和旱涝急转。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Exploring the evolution of drought and flood is of importance for the water hazard risk management especially in Huang-Huai-Hai region. Drought and flood data over the last 541 years from 16 representative stations in east-central Huang-Huai-Hai plain were collected. Based on Markov chain model （MC）， the analytical results such as the probability of stability， duration time expectation， recurrence time， mean drought-to-flood shifting time， drought and flood event occurrence probability were obtained. It is indicated that moderate drought and drought events generally happened over the region for a long period. The middle Huang River basin is characterized by frequent or continuous drought events， followed by Hai River basin. Meanwhile， the lower Huai River basin was characterized by frequent or continuous flood events. Two year or longer duration of continuous droughts would happen more likely in Yulin， Yan’an， Linfen， Taiyuan and Xi’an districts， but the probability of continuous flood was lower. Continuous flood and drought-flood shifting would happen more likely in Fuyang，Bengbu，Heze and Linyi districts. |
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