| 刘学,诸裕良,孙波,孙林云.基于Copula 函数推求设计潮位过程线[J].水利学报,2014,45(2): |
| 基于Copula 函数推求设计潮位过程线 |
| Derivation of design tide curve based on Copula function |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 设计潮位过程线 Copula函数 高潮位 潮差 重现期 |
| 英文关键词: design tide curve Copula function high tidal level tidal range return period |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 现行推求设计潮位过程线采用的同频率设计方法，未考虑到高潮位与潮差间的相关性及同时发生的概率。择优选用G-H Copula函数建立年最高潮位和年最大潮差的二维联合分布模型，对重现期进行计算与分析。以天津港塘沽站长期潮位资料为研究数据，经分析得到以下结果：在年最高潮位与年最大潮差相关性弱的感潮河段，较大重现期的高潮位和潮差同频率发生的概率很小；实测资料中年最高潮位与相应潮差的同现重现期主要受高潮位重现期的控制，且二者间存在良好的线性相关关系。提出了一种以高潮位为控制要素，结合同现重现期推求设计潮位过程线的方法，可应用于以考虑高潮位为主的防洪潮设计，而对以考虑潮流为主的设计潮位过程线推求则不适用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The current method in the derivation of design tide curve takes the high tidal level and tidal range being enlarged by the same design frequency， however， it does not consider the correlation between high tidal level and tidal range. By optimizing selection of G-H Copula function， a two-dimensional joint distribution model was built with annual maximum tidal level and annual maximum tidal range， and then corresponding return period was calculated and analyzed. A case study was carried out based on the long-term observations on Tanggu tide station of Tianjin Port. The results show that （a） the probability is very small when high tidal level encountering tidal range with the same large return period， and （b） the concurring return period of annual maximum tidal level and relevant tidal range is mainly controlled by the
return period of annual maximum tidal level and a good linear correlation existing between them. Treating
the high tidal level as a controlling element and considering the concurring return period， a new method
for obtaining design tide curve is proposed. It can be applied to the design of protection against the flood
and tide， while the method is inapplicable for deducing design tide curve when taking tidal current as a
controlling element. |
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