文章摘要
牛纪苹,粟晓玲.石羊河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量对气候变化的响应模拟及预测[J].水利学报,2014,45(3):
石羊河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量对气候变化的响应模拟及预测
Simulation and estimation of reference evapotranspiration responsing to climate change in Shiyang River basin
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 气候变化  参考作物蒸发蒸腾量  石羊河流域  SDSM
英文关键词: climate change  reference evapotranspiration（ET0）  Shiyang River basin  SDSM
基金项目:
作者单位
牛纪苹 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院，陕西杨凌712100 
粟晓玲 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院，陕西杨凌712100 
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中文摘要:
      模拟和预测气候变化对石羊河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量（ET0）时空分布的影响，为发展节水农业和科学利用水资源提供参考依据。根据石羊河流域及周边11 个气象站点1951—2012 年的逐日气象资料， 使用Penman-Monteith公式计算现状ET0，利用大气环流模型HadCM3的输出和SDSM 统计降尺度模型，预测A2、B2两种排放情景下未来石羊河流域2020s，2050s和2080s的ET0，使用反距离加权插值法（IDW）和Mann-Kendall检验分别研究ET0的空间分布特征和随时间的变化趋势。结果表明，石羊河流域多年平均ET0值为1 061mm，高值区位于东北地区，低值区位于西南地区，预计未来2020s、2050s和2080s，在HadCM3模式的A2情景下ET0 将分别增加6%、14%和23%，B2 情景下将分别增加7%、12%和17%，增幅较大的地区位于流域东南， 2050s和2080s在B2情景下增幅低于A2情景。石羊河流域ET0在未来将持续增加，2050s之后增加趋势更为显著。
英文摘要:
      Simulating and estimating the influence of climate change on spatiotemporal characteristics of reference evapotranspiration （ET0） provides support for developing water-saving agriculture and efficient use of water resources. The Penman-Monteith equation is employed to calculate daily ET0 for the 11 meteorological stations located in and around the Shiyang River basin during 1951—2012. While ET0 in 2020s， 2050s and 2080s are downscaled from HadCM3 （Hadley centre Coupled Model， version 3） outputs under A2 and B2 emission scenarios by SDSM （Statistical Downscaling Model）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend in ET0 are investigated by Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation and Mann-Kendall test，respectively. The results show that the annual mean ET0 in the Shiyang River basin is 1 061mm， the highest values are located in the northeast region，and the lowest values are located in the southwest region. HadCM3 projects an ET0 increase of 6%， 14%， 23% under A2 scenario in the 2020s， 2050s and 2080s， respectively，while it projects an ET0 increase of 7%，12%，17% under B2 scenario，an obvious amplification is detected in the southeast region， in 2050s and 2080s， the ET0 increase under B2 scenario are lower than those under A2 scenario. It will be a significant ET0 increasing trend in the future and after the 2050s.
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