| 袁喆,严登华,杨志勇,尹军.集合建模在径流模拟和预测中的应用[J].水利学报,2014,45(3): |
| 集合建模在径流模拟和预测中的应用 |
| Ensemble model and its application in runoff simulation and forecast |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 集合建模 SWAT模型 灰色模型 径流模拟预测 |
| 英文关键词: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 由于单一模型在水文过程模拟和预测中存在一定的局限性，本文在SWAT模型和灰色微分动态自记忆模型的基础上，分别采用熵权法和集对分析法构建基于熵权法的集合模型（EW-CM）和基于集对分析法的集合模型（SPA-CM），以充分发挥其各自的优点。将各单一模型和集合模型分别应用于滦河流域径流过程的模拟和预测，对比结果表明：（1）SPA-CM 模型径流模拟效果最好，而EW-CM 模型在部分地区的径流模拟效果劣于SWAT 模型；（2）EW-CM模型和SPA-CM模型径流预测效果在一定程度上优于单一模型，综合分析表明SPA-CM模型最优。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As the limitations of individual model in simulating and forecasting the hydrological process，this study constructed the ensemble models of EW-CM and SPA-CM based on the Entropy Weight method and Set Pair Analysis method respectively， which aims at taking advantages of SWAT and Seasonal Index Self-memory Differential Hydrological Grey Model. The individual models and ensemble models were applied in runoff simulation and forecast in the Luanhe River Basin. The results show that SPA-CM performs the best while EW-CM was worse than SWAT in runoff simulation. EW-CM and SPA-CM perform better than the individual model in runoff forecast and the SPA-CM is proved to be a better one. |
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