文章摘要
李天元,郭生练,刘章君,徐长江.梯级水库下游设计洪水计算方法研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(6):
梯级水库下游设计洪水计算方法研究
Design flood estimation methods for cascade reservoirs
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 地区组成  离散求和  梯级水库  设计洪水  Copula函数
英文关键词: area composition  discrete summation  cascade reservoirs  design flood  Copula function
基金项目:
作者单位
李天元 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心，湖北武汉430072 
郭生练 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心，湖北武汉430072 
刘章君 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心，湖北武汉430072 
徐长江 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心，湖北武汉430072 
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中文摘要:
      我国《规范》推荐的梯级水库下游设计洪水计算方法，在实际工作中采用经验和概化处理，既影响成果的科学合理性，亦影响成果精度。本文以Copula 函数理论为基础，构造了水库断面洪量与区间洪量的联合分布，推求了条件概率函数的显式表达式，提出了基于Copula 函数的改进离散求和法，通过直接对条件概率曲线进行离散，克服了《规范》中离散求和法需要进行变量独立性转换的问题。以清江流域梯级水库下游设计洪水为例，分析比较地区组成法、离散求和法和基于Copula 函数的改进离散求和法所得设计成果。结果表明，几种方法所推求的设计值差别不大，但改进的离散求和法所得结果稍微偏大，这是由于该法考虑了各分区变量之间的内在联系，结果比较合理和偏安全；受上游梯级水库调蓄的影响，高坝洲断面千年一遇设计洪水的削峰率高达40 %以上。
英文摘要:
      The design flood estimation methods recommended by Chinese guidelines for downstream area of cascade reservoirs can only be used with experiences and simplifications in engineering practice， which may affect the precision and scientific rationality of the final results. In this study， Copula function was used to establish the joint distribution of flood volumes between dam-site section and interval basin. A modified discrete summation method was proposed based on the conditional distribution derived by Copula function. The proposed method， which discretizes the conditional distribution curve directly， can overcome the shortcomings of traditional discrete summation method and do not need independence transformation. The design flood for downstream area of the Qingjiang cascade reservoirs was estimated by area composition method， discrete summation method and Copula-based modified discrete summation method. The Comparison results show that there are little differences of design flood values estimated by these methods. The flood quantile estimated by the proposed method is a little larger than those of other methods since it has considered the inner correlation of floods in different regions， which is much safer and reasonable. Besides， the 1000-year design peak discharge of the Gaobazhou dam-site has been cut over 40 % due to the regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs.
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