| 冯峰,倪广恒,何宏谋.基于逆向扩散和分层赋权的黄河堤防工程安全评价[J].水利学报,2014,45(9): |
| 基于逆向扩散和分层赋权的黄河堤防工程安全评价 |
| Research on safety evaluation of Yellow River embankment based on consequence-reverse-diffusion and layered-weight method |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 堤防工程 安全评价 模糊评价 后果逆向扩散 分层赋权 黄河 |
| 英文关键词: embankment engineering safety evaluation fuzzy assessment consequence-reverse-diffusion method layered weight Yellow River |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对黄河堤防工程安全的评价问题，首先基于后果逆向扩散法，构建了多层次半结构性的评价指标体系；基于分层赋权思路，对多层次的黄河堤防评价体系进行赋权。第1层（输入层）通过计算熵值权向量来确定指标的数学权向量，第2层（准则层）采用熵值权向量、等权重和经验赋权法3种权向量，利用模糊评价模型进行计算对比。选择黄河下游6个典型堤段进行实例计算，第2层的计算中采用了3种权重：熵值权向量（0.394，0.606），等权重（0.500，0.500）和主观权重（0.600，0.400）。根据评价结果可知，各堤段综合评价值基本一致。工程因素子系统最优的是堤防1、3、4，非工程因素子系统最优的是堤防5、6，熵值权向量和等权重评价结果均为堤防5黄河北岸陶城铺段堤防最优；主观权重评价为堤防3黄河南岸东平湖段堤防最优。后果逆向扩散法可以快速全面地确定安全影响因子，分层赋权可以有效地克服人为权重的影响，从而保证获得客观合理的安全评价值，并能根据评价结果找到堤防工程安全相对薄弱的因素，为黄河堤防的安全运用提供数据支撑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To make a safety evaluation for the embankment in the Lower Yellow River， a multi-level and semi-structured evaluation index system has been constructed on the basis of the consequence-reverse-diffusion method， giving weights to the multi-objective and multi-level system based on the layered-weight method. In the first layer （input layer）， the index weight is confirmed through the calculation of entropy-weight-vector， and in the second layer （criterion layer）， the sub-system weight is confirmed through three methods： entropy-weight-vector， equal-weight and experience weight. At last， the fuzzy evaluation model is used to calculate and compare the results. Taking six typical sections of embankment in the Lower Yellow River as a case study， in calculation of the second layer， three kinds of weight are adopted， i. e.， the entropy-weight-vector （0.394， 0.606）， the equal-weight （0.500， 0.500） and the subjective weight （0.600， 0.400）. According to the results， the comprehensive evaluation values for each section of embankment are basically consistent. The optimum section in sub-system of engineering factors are those of No.1， No.3， No.4 embankment， and the optimum ones of non-engineering factors are those of No.5， No.6 embankment. The best one is the No.5 section of Taochengpu embankment in evaluation results based on both entropy-weight-vector and equal-weight， and the No.3 section of Dongpinghu embankment based on the results of subjective-weight. The consequences-reverse-diffusion method can quickly determine safety factors comprehensively， and the layered-weight method can effectively overcome the human influence， so that we can obtain objective and reasonable safety evaluation value， and find relatively weak levee engineering. Above research results can provide data support used for the safety management of the Yellow River embankment. |
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