| 李宗坤,葛巍,王娟,郭巍巍.改进的突变评价法在土石坝施工期风险评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2014,45(10): |
| 改进的突变评价法在土石坝施工期风险评价中的应用 |
| Improved catastrophe theory evaluation method and its application to earth-rock dam risk evaluation during construction |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水工结构 风险评价 突变评价法 改进 土石坝施工 |
| 英文关键词: hydraulic structure risk evaluation catastrophe theory evaluation method improvement earth-rock dam construction |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1914 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对常规突变评价法存在的综合评价值过高、优劣方案的综合评价值过于接近的缺点，提出了改进的突变评价法。采用S型曲线分布作为拟合函数，将初始综合评价值映射到底层指标隶属度上得到改进的突变评价值，使其分布范围有效扩大，评价结果的优劣更为清晰。经算例分析，并将该方法应用于燕山水库施工方案的风险评价与比选中，验证了所提改进方法的合理性，对工程建设具有较好的指导作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| There are two major problems identified in the application of conventional catastrophe theory evaluation method：（a） overestimated assessment values and （b） the indistinguishability of the final values
from both prior and inferior projects. In order to solve the above-mentioned drawbacks， an improved catastrophe theory evaluation method is proposed in this paper. In this method，an S-curved distribution is incorporated as a fitting function. The initial comprehensive evaluation value is mapped to the underlying index
membership to acquire improved value of catastrophe theory evaluation method， effectively expanding the
scope of the distribution and dramatically clarifying the merits of the evaluation. Through empirical analysis
and applying the method to risk evaluation and comparison of the construction program of Yanshan Reservoir， the author verifies rationality of the proposed methods， which preferably offer instructions to engineering construction. |
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