| 莫淑红,段海妮,沈冰,韩海军,聂思雨.考虑不确定性的区间多阶段随机规划模型研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(12): |
| 考虑不确定性的区间多阶段随机规划模型研究 |
| Study on an interval multi-stage stochastic programming approach |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水资源管理 不确定性 多阶段 |
| 英文关键词: water resources management uncertainty multi-stage |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2775 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水资源供需系统具有复杂性和不确定性，且系统环境随时间动态变化，给决策者带来困扰。本文基于多阶段规划框架下的多层离散情境树，引入区间数和概率密度函数表达模型中不同参数的不确定性，建立适用于水资源管理决策的区间多阶段随机规划模型，并以陕西省宝鸡市冯家山水库多用户供水方案决策问题进行实例研究。结果表明，该模型不仅能处理水资源供需系统中的不确定性，而且能够以多情境下的离散形式反映各规划周期中水资源配置的动态决策过程，并对预先制定的决策实时纠正以减少缺水经济惩罚和降低不能达到目标的风险，模型优化结果有助于决策者权衡系统经济效益、相应决策风险和相应的经济惩罚。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| There are a lot of uncertainties and other complicated problems in water resources management system， mainly concerning parameters and their inter-relationships， which may trouble the decision-makers.Based on multilayer discrete situational tree under the multi-stage programming frame， an interval multi-stage stochastic programming model is developed to deal with uncertainty problem for water resources management system. Interval number and probability density function are introduced into the model to express the uncertainties of different parameters. The model is used to simulate water allocation of the Fengji
ashan Reservoir for multi-user to generate optimized allocation schemes for a range of scenarios. The results indicate that the model can not only deal with the uncertainties but also reflect dynamic decision process of water resources allocation in each planning period by discrete form of multi-scenario， so that the corrective actions could be taken in a real-time manner based on the pre-defined policies and minimize the penalty for water deficit and the risk when the promised targets being violated，solution of the IMSLP model can make the decision-maker get insight into the trade-off between the system economic benefit and the corresponding decision risk or financial penalties. |
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