| 陈森林,董建凡,郭乐,黄宇昊.基于改进基尼系数的水电站年最优发电量变化规律研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(12): |
| 基于改进基尼系数的水电站年最优发电量变化规律研究 |
| Improved Gini Coefficient and annual optimal generation changing rules of hydropower station |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 中长期优化调度 径流描述 改进基尼系数 年最优发电量基点 准线性乘积关系 三峡水电站 |
| 英文关键词: mid-long term optimal operation runoff describing Improved Gini coefficient basic-point of optimal annual generation approximate linear product relationship the Three Gorges power station |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对（不完全）年调节水电站优化调度中年最优发电量随径流参数的变化规律不明晰的研究现状，本文从提出时空两方面描述径流年内分配均匀度的改进基尼系数入手，揭示了年径流量与改进基尼系数相互独立的数学规律。采取以年径流量和改进基尼系数为随机变量的径流生成方法，再结合确定性优化调度数学模型开展水电站中长期优化调度研究，这种“随机-确定”相结合的优化方法有效地避免了水电站中长期随机优化调度中径流描述“维数灾”问题。基于单因子回归分析提取了年最优发电量基点，并以此为基础进行年最优发电量与年径流量和改进基尼系数之间的联合变化规律研究。实例应用表明，三峡水电站年最优发电量与改进基尼系数和年平均流量之间具有较好的准线性乘积关系，其年最优发电量计算方法具有很高的精度，为水电站年最优发电量的计算提供了一种简便、快速和高精度的方法。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As unsharpness exists in describing the changing rules of optimal generation capacity in annual （or incomplete annual） regulation reservoir， this paper started from proposing the Improved Gini coefficient， which expresses the distribution uniformity of runoff during a year from two aspects of time and space， and revealed the independence between annual runoff flow and Improved Gini coefficient. Using the random runoff generation method which takes annual runoff or Improved Gini coefficient as random variable， and combined with deterministic scheduling optimization mathematical model to carry out mid-long term optimal dispatching of hydropower， this “random-deterministic” optimization method effectively avoid the“curse of dimensionality”problem in describing runoff during research on hydropower mid-long term stochastic optimization scheduling. The basic-point of optimal annual generation is extracted by simple factor regression analysis， based on which， the paper studied the joint changing rules of optimal annual generation with two parameters： annual runoff and Improved Gini coefficient. The results of case study show that the optimal annual energy production of Three Gorges station exists a relatively good approximate linear product relation with annual runoff and Improved Gini coefficient， and it is of high accuracy to calculate optimal annual energy production by this method， which provided a simple， fast and high accuracy method to calculate the optimal annual energy production. |
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