| 张子贤,孙光东,孙建印,彭长刚.采用不同路径推求城市暴雨强度总公式的拟合误差分析[J].水利学报,2015,46(1): |
| 采用不同路径推求城市暴雨强度总公式的拟合误差分析 |
| Fitting error analysis for determining urban storm intensity multi-period formula by different paths |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 暴雨强度总公式 直接拟合法 传统方法 实测雨强样本 误差平方和 理论分析 |
| 英文关键词: storm intensity multi-period formula direct fitting method conventional method samples of observed storm intensity error sum of squares theory analysis |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 传统方法确定暴雨强度总公式的参数需要经过理论频率曲线拟合、总公式参数拟合两个环节；而直接拟合法利用非线性回归方法直接拟合实测雨强样本。本文从理论上分析与比较了这两种不同路径推求暴雨强度总公式拟合实测雨强样本的误差。所得结果表明，由直接拟合法求得的总公式拟合实测雨强样本的误差平方和小于传统方法的相应结果，该结论具有普适性。因此，直接拟合法不仅避免了选择何种理论频率曲线的纠结及推求暴雨强度总公式参数的任意性，而且能提高拟合精度。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Conventional method for determining the parameters of the storm intensity multi-period formula usually consists of two fitting processes，fitting theory frequency curve and fitting the parameters of storm intensity multi-period formula. However， the direct fitting method directly fit the samples of observed storm intensity by nonlinear regression method. In this paper，the error of fitting samples of observed storm intensity was analyzed and compared in theory by these two different paths to determine the storm intensity multi-period formula. The result shows that error sum of squares of fitting samples of observed storm intensity by direct fitting method obtained multi-period formula is smaller than the result from the conventional method. This conclusion has universality. So the direct fitting method not only avoid tangle of choosing theory frequency curve， and arbitrariness of deriving parameters for the storm intensity multi-period formula，but also can increase the fitting accuracy. |
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