| 杨印,任青文,王冬梅,田英.基于联系度的梯级库群系统连锁失效模型的建立与应用[J].水利学报,2016,47(11):1442-1448 |
| 基于联系度的梯级库群系统连锁失效模型的建立与应用 |
| Establishment and application of cascading failure model based on connection degree of cascade reservoirs system |
| 投稿时间：2015-10-26 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20151129 |
| 中文关键词: 梯级库群 连锁失效 联系度 集对分析 |
| 英文关键词: cascade reservoirs cascading failure connection degree set pair analysis |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目（2013BAB06B01） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1819 |
| 全文下载次数: 138 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 目前，许多河流已进入梯级开发阶段，为了开展梯级库群的安全评价，本文在分析梯级库群系统特性的基础上，根据上下游水库之间存在的失效影响关系，建立了梯级库群系统的连锁失效概率模型。连锁失效概率模型中最重要的分析在于对联系度的定义与计算。在分析过程中，引入了集对分析理论提出的联系度思想，并将其转化为联系度距离。由于梯级库群系统中体现各水库之间联系的指标具有在某一区间内变化的特性，故引入数学中区间数的相关理论，推导了基于联系距离的区间TOPSIS 计算方法，最终计算出连锁失效概率模型中的联系度。文中以“小湾–糯扎渡”四梯级库群为例，经初步分析得出，在考虑上下游失效联系的前提下，此库群系统中大朝山的失效风险较大。本文的研究思路和方法将为梯级库群系统的整体安全分析提供理论基础，为梯级库群系统优化设计提供一定的理论参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| At present, a lot of rivers have entered the stage of cascade development. In order to assess the safety of the cascade reservoirs system,a cascading failure model is established in this paper based on the analysis of the characteristics of cascade reservoirs system according to the failure effect relationship be-tween upstream and downstream reservoir. The definition and calculation of connection degree is the most important part in the analysis of the cascading failure model. In the process of analysis,the set pair analy-sis theory and the ideas of the connection degree is introduced,and the contact distance is defined. The in-dex value which reflects the relationships of each reservoir is changing within a certain interval, so the in-terval Numbers of the mathematical knowledge is introduced, the method that based on TOPSIS is de-duced, and finally the connection degree is calculated through the cascading failure model. This paper pro-vides a foundation theory for the overall safety analysis of cascade reservoirs system,and certain theoretical reference for the optimization design of cascade reservoirs system. |
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