| 孙新国,彭勇,张小丽,周惠成.基于聚合水库蓄放水模拟的洪水预报研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(3):308-316 |
| 基于聚合水库蓄放水模拟的洪水预报研究 |
| A method for flood forecasting based the operation chart of aggregated reservoir |
| 投稿时间：2016-04-07 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160329 |
| 中文关键词: 洪水预报 水利工程影响 聚合水库 蓄放水模拟图 TOPMODEL模型 |
| 英文关键词: flood forecasting hydraulic constructions aggregated reservoir operation chart of holding and discharging TOPMODEL |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51379027，91547111）；辽宁省自然科学基金项目（2015020608）；国家十二五科技支撑计划子课题（2015BAB07B03） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 大量水利工程建设很大程度上改变了流域的天然水文特性，特别是对洪水产生了更显著的影响，给流域水文预报工作带来很大的难度。本文首先基于聚合水库的思想，将众多水利工程聚合成一个水库，并根据各水利工程的基本调蓄规律制定聚合水库的蓄放水模拟图； 然后将聚合水库的蓄放水模拟图与天然期洪水率定得到的TOPMODEL 模型相结合，构建考虑水利工程影响的洪水预报模型；最后在丰满水库五道沟以上流域进行实例验证。结果表明，考虑水利工程影响的洪水预报方案优于原预报方案，显著提高了洪水预报合格率，并能有效克服原方案在初汛和久旱后预报产流偏大及主汛大洪水期间预报产流偏小的问题；预报洪水过程与实测洪水过程也更加吻合。对3种类型洪水过程的分析表明，聚合水库蓄放水模拟图能较好地反映水利工程在洪水过程中的蓄放规律和对洪水的综合作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Hydraulic constructions can dramatically alter the hydrological characteristics of the basin, especially the process and volume of the flood,which make it more difficult to accurately forecast flood. In the present study,we propose a new method for flood forecasting,which can effectively account for the hydraulic constructions. In this method, the hydraulic constructions is firstly aggregated as the equivalent reservoir, whose operation chart of holding and discharging is obtained according to the rule of the single hydraulic construction. Then, the new flood forecasting method is formed by combing the operation chart with the original TOPMODEL calibrated with the natural flood. The proposed method has been applied for forecasting flood in Subarea Ⅱ of the Fengman basin in Northeast China and results show that the precision is significantly improved with an advance of the qualified ratio of forecasting runoff yield. The situation that the value at beginning of flood season and after a long drought is usually underestimated has also been modified. Three types ot typical flood process simulated by the new method are more suitable to observed process. All the results indicate that the method developed can effectively account for the impacts of hydraulic constructions on flood process. |
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