| 陈敏建,马静,李锦秀,仲志余,倪红珍,姜玲.水害损失与水利综合效应分析核算[J].水利学报,2017,48(4):417-425 |
| 水害损失与水利综合效应分析核算 |
| The analysis and accounting on the damages induced by water hazards and the effects arising from water affairs |
| 投稿时间：2016-05-13 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160519 |
| 中文关键词: 水害损失 水利综合效应 和集差 S型曲线 长江三角洲 |
| 英文关键词: damage induced by water the effect arising from water affair the difference in aggregation and sum set S-shaped curve Yangtze Delta |
| 基金项目:国家重点研究计划课题（2016YFC0503502）；水利部公益性行业科研经费专项项目（201501031）；2014年留学人员科技活动项目《洪涝损失的全口径评价技术》 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 对水害造成的损失进行全方位准确的核算，是以降低各类水灾害造成的经济损失作为水利发展目标的技术支撑条件。本文对此开展系统研究，通过资源环境经济学分析，给出水害损失定义；通过和集差效应理论分析，建立各类水害损失计算与水害总损失核算关系；根据量能累积与阻抗交互作用原理证明，水害损失符合S型曲线，由自然现象产生的原生灾害呈现完整的S型，由人类干扰产生的衍生灾害处于S曲线的起始阶段，因此建立了单项损失计算方法；根据量能累积变化的相位互补原理核算转移效应。上述研究形成水害损失与水利综合效应分析核算技术体系。并以长江三角洲为例进行案例分析和评估。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Reducing the damages induced by the water hazards is recognized as the development goal in water sector under the new period. Therefore, the systematic and correct accounting on the losses induced by water hazards is vital for the target achieved. This paper conducts a series of analyses:defining the damages induced by water hazards from the perspective of resources and environment economics; explaining the phenomenon that total losses of water induced disasters are unequal to the sum of individual disaster insettheory; furthermore namingit after the effect on the difference in aggregation and sum set, which helps us to well understand the interactive relationship between the individual loss and the total. The process of disaster loss in an S-shaped curve is explored based on the interactive process of energy accumulation and resisting effect. A unique function is derived as well. However, it is subject to the nature of disaster. A complete S-shaped curve is widely observed in the original disaster from natural phenomenon; whereas, the loss from artificial disturbance only appears the bottom part of an S-shaped curve. A calculating framework consists of the method on individual loss and value shifting in the relief and offset of losses during the alternation of these natural hazards. Finally,an example on Yangtze Delta is described in detail. |
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