文章摘要
闫宝伟,潘增,薛野,段美壮.论水文计算中的相关性分析方法[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1039-1046
论水文计算中的相关性分析方法
Modeling dependence and correlation in hydrological calculation
投稿时间:2016-11-29  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20161280
中文关键词: 相关性  Copula 函数  回归分析  自回归分析  R/S 分析  主成分分析  假相关
英文关键词: correlation  Copula function  regression  auto regression  R/S analysis  principal components analysis  pseudo correlation
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402708);中央高校基本科研业务费资助(HUST:2017KFYXJJ195)
作者单位
闫宝伟 华中科技大学 水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074 
潘增 华中科技大学 水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074 
薛野 华中科技大学 水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074 
段美壮 华中科技大学 水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074 
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中文摘要:
      相关性分析是水文计算的一项重要内容,几乎涉及到水文计算的各个领域,寻求适合的相关性分析方法,对解决实际问题将有很大帮助。本文全面论述了水文计算中的相关性,综述了各类相关性的度量和分析方法及适用范围;分析了线性回归和自回归分析在水文计算中遇到的理论障碍,研究了采用Copula函数解决水文变量非线性和非正态问题的可行性;考虑水库蓄水增量的长程相依性,展望了R/S分析方法在水库防洪风险分析中的应用前景;提出了用主成分分析思想构造洪水事件综合指标的方法,以实现洪水恶劣程度的综合排序;研究了Copula函数分析结果的可靠性,指出了这种方法在应用层面上可能出现的失真问题;最后分析了水文计算常遇到的假相关问题。
英文摘要:
      Correlations widely exist in the hydrological phenomena. Correlation analysis is an important con-tent of hydrological calculation. It is involved in nearly every field of hydrological calculation. It is of great help to solving the practical problems by finding a suitable correlation analysis method. Dependence and cor-relation modeling in hydrological calculation were reviewed thoroughly. The measurement and analysis meth-ods of the correlation, as well as the relevant matters needing attention were summarized. The theoretical obstacles encountered in hydrological calculation of linear regression and auto regression methods were ana-lyzed. The feasibility of using the Copula-based methods to solve the nonlinearity and non-normality of the hydrological variables was studied. When the long-term dependence of the increments of the reservoir stor-age was considered, the application of R/S analysis method in flood risk analysis was prospected. A new way to calculate the synthesis index for flood event using the thought of principal components analysis was proposed. Then the severity of the flood event can be ranked synthetically. The reliability of the results ana-lyzed by the Copula function was studied. The distortion problem that may occur in the application of this method was also pointed out. Finally, the pseudo correlation problem which is often encountered in the hy-drological calculation was analyzed.
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