陈健云,贾启彬,徐强.地震作用下混凝土坝时变动力可靠度的概率密度演化方法研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(11):1348-1354,1362 |
地震作用下混凝土坝时变动力可靠度的概率密度演化方法研究 |
Study on probability density evolution method for time-dependent dynamic reliability of concrete dams subjected to earthquake |
投稿时间:2017-05-22 |
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170483 |
中文关键词: 混凝土坝 退化 全寿命周期 概率密度演化 等价极值事件 时变动力可靠度 |
英文关键词: concrete dam deterioration life-cycle probability density evolution equivalent extreme value event time-dependent dynamic reliability |
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404900) |
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中文摘要: |
随着混凝土坝运行时间增加,坝体材料性能逐渐退化,其抗震能力降低,所以有必要对大坝进行全寿命周期抗震安全评估。本文基于概率密度演化理论提出一种混凝土坝全寿命周期抗震性能概率分析方法。该方法同时考虑坝体材料的随机性和时变性,引入相对位移角作为性能综合评价指标。首先建立服役时间内坝体动力非线性响应极值的概率密度演化方程,然后结合等价极值事件求得初始条件,并运用差分法求解方程,最后在安全域内对求解结果积分给出时变动力可靠度。通过算例验证了本文方法的可行性。结果表明,所建议方法能够获取坝体抗震性能在整个服役寿命的概率演化信息和动力可靠度时变规律,且与蒙特卡洛法对比具有较高的计算精度和计算效率。 |
英文摘要: |
With the increasing of service time, the seismic capacity of concrete dams decreases because of the deterioration of material. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the life-cycle seismic safety of dams. Based on the theory of probability density evolution, this paper proposes a probabilistic analysis method of life-cycle seismic performance of concrete dams. The relative displacement angle as the index of performance evaluation is introduced, while the randomness and time variability of material are considered. Firstly, the probability density evolution equation is established for the extreme value of the dynamic nonlinear response of the dam in its service life. Then, the initial condition is obtained by employing the theory of the equivalent extreme value event and the equation is solved by the difference method. Finally, the time-dependent dynamic reliability is acquired in the safety domain. The validity of the method is verified through a numerical example. The results show that the proposed method can obtain probability evolution information of seismic performance and the development of the dynamic reliability of dams in its service life. Compared with the Monte Carlo method,the new method shows higher accuracy and efficiency. |
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