| 雷晓辉,王浩,廖卫红,杨明祥,桂梓玲.变化环境下气象水文预报研究进展[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):9-18 |
| 变化环境下气象水文预报研究进展 |
| Advances in hydro-meteorological forecast under changing environment |
| 投稿时间：2017-07-31 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170750 |
| 中文关键词: 非一致性 气象水文预报 数值天气预报 流域水文模型 参数率定 数据同化 集合预报 |
| 英文关键词: non-stationarity hydro-meteorological forecast numerical weather forecast watershed hydrologi-cal model parameterization data assimilation ensemble forecast |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题（2017YFB0203104）；国家自然科学基金项目（51709273） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 随着全球气候变化、下垫面改变及高强度人类活动的不断加剧，流域降水、蒸发、径流等气象水文要素都受到直接性的影响，水文序列的一致性假设不复存在。在变化环境下，传统径流预报方法适用性逐步变差，从而对气象水文的精准预报带来挑战。本文分别从气象水文预报的各个环节——多源降水数据融合、数值天气预报、流域水文模型、参数率定、数据同化、集合预报等方面综述了变化环境下的气象水文预报的研究进展。可以看到，国内外学者围绕上述技术都开展了大量研究，并取得了大量成果。未来针对变化环境下气象水文预报研究，将主要围绕以下方向开展：（1）落地和预报降水精度及时空分辨率的进一步提高；（2）水文模型结构的改进及不确定性分析；（3）水文预报误差的描述方法及其可靠性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| With the change of global climate and underlying surface characteristics, and increasing human activities, hydro-meteorological factors such as precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, etc., are directly affected, therefore the assumption of stationarity may no longer exist. In a changing environment, the conventional run-off predicting methods become invalid, which brings challenges to accurate hydro-meteorological forecast. A review of hydro-meteorological forecast research under a changing environment is presented from the aspects of precipitation data fusion, numerical weather forecast, watershed hydrological model, parameterization, data as-similation and ensemble forecast. Much relevant research has been studied, and a lot of achievements have been achieved. The future research on hydrological forecast under changing environment will mainly focus on the following direction:(1) to further improve the accuracy and spatial resolution of precipitation fore-cast;(2) structure improvement and uncertainty analysis of hydrological models;(3) description methods of hydrological forecast error and reliability. |
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