| 顾冲时,苏怀智,刘何稚.大坝服役风险分析与管理研究述评[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):26-35 |
| 大坝服役风险分析与管理研究述评 |
| Review on service risk analysis of dam engineering |
| 投稿时间：2017-07-23 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170721 |
| 中文关键词: 大坝 服役风险 标准 识别 评估 处理 |
| 英文关键词: dam service risk criterion identification assessment treatment |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFC0401601）；国家自然科学基金项目（51579083，51479054） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 随着生产力水平的不断提升和风险理念的引入，我国大坝安全管理正从传统的工程安全管理向工程风险管理方向发展。在对我国大坝风险分析与管理研究现状进行阐述的基础上，论述了大坝风险标准的建立、风险识别、风险评估及风险处理等大坝风险分析与管理各环节的研究现状。认为今后应加强群坝风险标准及溃坝社会与环境影响、大坝风险识别量化模型、多失效模式大坝风险率计算、非概率及时变可靠性分析方法和群坝风险分析与管理等方面的研究，以完善我国大坝风险分析与管理体系，确保大坝健康长效服役。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| With the rapid development of dam construction and the continuous improvement of the productiv-ity level, China’s dam safety management is transmitting from the traditional engineering safety manage-ment to the risk management nowadays. Based on the analysis of the current situation of dam risk analysis and management in China, the research status of dam risk criteria establishment, risk identification, risk assessment and risk treatment was discussed in this paper. In order to perfect the dam risk analysis and management system in China, it should be highlighted in the future to study the dams risk criteria, social and environmental impact caused by dam-break, quantitative model of dam risk identification, dam risk cal-culation under multiple failure modes, non-probabilistic and time-dependent reliability analysis methods, and the risk analysis methods for dam group system and so on, which may help to ensure the long-term performance of hydraulic structures. |
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