文章摘要
李炎隆,佘磊,周兴波,王琳,于沭.基于正交试验法的梯级水库连溃分析模型参数敏感性分析[J].水利学报,2018,49(7):823-830
基于正交试验法的梯级水库连溃分析模型参数敏感性分析
Parameters sensitivity analysis of successive dam break model for cascade reservoir based on the orthogonal test method
投稿时间:2018-01-20  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180074
中文关键词: 梯级水库  连溃分析模型  土石坝  正交试验法  敏感性分析
英文关键词: cascade reservoirs  successive dam break model  earth-rock dam  the orthogonal test method  sensitivity analysis
基金项目:国家优秀青年基金项目(51722907);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731289)
作者单位
李炎隆 西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 西安理工大学, 陕西 西安 710048 
佘磊 西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 西安理工大学, 陕西 西安 710048
中国水利水电科学研究院 岩土工程研究所, 北京 100048 
周兴波 水电水利规划设计总院, 北京 100120 
王琳 西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 西安理工大学, 陕西 西安 710048 
于沭 中国水利水电科学研究院 岩土工程研究所, 北京 100048 
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中文摘要:
      建设梯级水库是目前江河水电开发的主要方式,连溃分析模型参数的合理选择,对保障梯级水电工程的安全运行具有重要的意义。基于正交试验法,以我国西南某流域上虚拟的“下庄(1)—达里—双屯子”三级梯级水库系统为例,进行梯级水库连溃分析模型参数对下庄(1)水库溃决流量Q、达里水库最高水位H1和双屯子水库最高水位H2三个试验指标的敏感性分析。研究结果表明:梯级水库连溃分析模型中参数侵蚀率b、双屯子水库起调水位H*对各指标计算结果影响显著,参数敏感性高;而洪水频率P对各指标计算结果影响较小,参数敏感性较低。因此,在梯级水库溃坝参数反演分析实际工程中,应该将bH*作为参数反演分析选取的重点。本文的研究方法及成果可以为梯级水库连溃分析模型参数反演分析时合理选择模型参数提供参考。
英文摘要:
      The construction of cascade reservoirs is the main way for hydropower development on the riv-ers. A reasonable selection of the parameters for the successive dam break analysis model is of great signifi-cance for the safe operation of the cascade hydropower projects. Taking a fictitious three-stage cascade res-ervoir system of "Xiazhuang(1)-Dali-Shuangtunzi" in a river basin in southwest China as an exam-ple, the orthogonal test method is adopted in this study to conduct the parameters sensitivity analysis of successive dam break model for cascade reservoir, considering major test indexes of the dam break flow Q of Xiazhuang(1), and the highest water level H1 and H2 in Dali and Shuangtunzi reservoirs respective-ly. The results show that among the parameters of successive dam break model for cascade reservoirs, the erosion rate b and the adjusting water level of Shuangtunzi reservoir have significant influence on the calcu-lation results of each index, which are parameters with high sensitivity; while the flood frequency P has relatively small influence on each index. Therefore, in the inversion analysis of the dam break parameters for cascade reservoir, b and H* should be selected as the key parameters of the inversion analysis. The re-search methods and results of this paper can provide a reference for the rational selection of parameters in the successive dam break model during the parameter inversion analysis of the cascade reservoirs.
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