| 张鑫,雍志勤,葛杰,郝小宇.基于区间模糊双层规划的水资源承载力与产业结构优化研究[J].水利学报,2019,50(5):565-577 |
| 基于区间模糊双层规划的水资源承载力与产业结构优化研究 |
| Water resources carrying capacity and industrial structure optimization based on interval fuzzy bi-level programming model |
| 投稿时间：2018-11-12 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20181047 |
| 中文关键词: 不确定性 区间模糊双层规划 水资源承载力 产业结构 榆林市 |
| 英文关键词: uncertainty interval fuzzy bi-level programming water resources carrying capacity industrial structure Yulin |
| 基金项目:陕西省科技统筹创新计划项目（2016KTZDNY-01-01） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1626 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 产业结构与水资源利用密切相关，通过合理调整产业结构可实现经济社会效益最大化。针对水资源规划和管理中存在的不确定性和复杂性，建立了考虑决策者和执行者之间利益关系的区间模糊双层规划模型，并探讨了榆林市水资源承载力和产业结构。结果表明：2030年榆林市可承载最大人口规模为[408.5，413.8]万人，农田灌溉面积为[143997.3，154975.8]hm2，经济规模为[8879.0，10470.7]亿元。经优化后产业结构趋向于"三二一"型，且二产高度依赖能源化工产业，榆林市整体用水结构处于高收入国家水平，但局部地区农业用水比重偏大，用水结构仍然不合理。因此，调整农业种植结构，进一步挖掘节水潜力减少用水量仍是提高水资源承载力所必须坚持的方向。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Industrial structure and utilization of water resources are highly correlated and the maximization of social and economic benefits can be realized by adjusting the industrial structure reasonably. According to the uncertainty and complexity in water resource programming and management in Yulin, an interval fuzzy bi-level programming model was established, wherein the relationship and interests between water de-cision-makers and users can be better considered. The model was applied to analyze the optimization of in-dustrial structure based on water carrying capacity and made some recommendations on balance the econom-ic development and water resources in Yulin City. The results show that the maximum population size,farm-land irrigation area and GDP scales would respectively be[4.085,4.138]×106people,[143997.3,154975.8] hm2 and[887900,1047070]×106 RMB. In sum,primary industry decreases gradually and secondary and ter-tiary industry increase step by step, especially tertiary industry in the industrial structure occupies an ever greater proportion. In the future industrial production, energy and chemical industries occupy a prominent position, which makes the secondary industry highly dependent on the energy and chemical industry. The optimized water consumed structure of the whole in Yulin city is at the level of high-income countries, but the proportion of agricultural water consumption is relatively large and the water consumed structure is still irrational. Therefore, adjust the agricultural planting structure, further tap the water saving potentials of water and reducing water consumption are still necessary to improve the water resources carrying capacity. |
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