| 方国华,涂玉虹,闻昕,颜敏,谭乔凤.1961—2015年淮河流域气象干旱发展过程和演变特征研究[J].水利学报,2019,50(5):598-611 |
| 1961—2015年淮河流域气象干旱发展过程和演变特征研究 |
| Study on the development process and evolution characteristics of meteorological drought in the Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2015 |
| 投稿时间：2018-11-06 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180986 |
| 中文关键词: 连续性干旱 时空特征 干旱指标 发展过程 动态演变 |
| 英文关键词: continuous drought spatial-temporal feature drought indicators development process evolu-tion characteristics |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2018YFC0407902）；国家自然科学基金项目（U1765201，51609061）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目（PAPD） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为刻画连续性干旱事件的时空动态演变过程，本文在时空维度下构建干旱事件发展时空特征变量并进行特征分析，对干旱发展过程和演变特征开展研究。首先确定干旱指标和阈值，然后判别干旱事件的时空连续性，进而建立涵盖干旱逐月集中点、干旱时空集中点、干旱时空迁移速率等12项干旱事件发展时空特征变量，使干旱事件发展时空特征可视化，最后对1961-2015年淮河流域气象干旱事件开展实例研究。结果表明：淮河流域夏旱和春旱发生频率较高，夏秋冬三季连旱年发展过程呈现出起源于沂沭泗河流域，再转向淮河中游，并逐渐向淮河上游迁移的规律，并存在秋旱较为严重的特点；干旱迁移方向对干旱逐月强度大小有一定的影响；受干旱影响最严重的地区主要分布在流域北部；过去干旱强度呈增大趋势，干旱面积呈下降趋势，整体向西北方向迁移，预计未来将向流域东北方向迁移。该研究为全面、精细解析干旱发展过程和时空演变特征提供了新的方法和技术。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to describe the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution process of continuous drought events, in this paper,the spatio-temporal characteristic variables of drought events are constructed and analyzed un-der the spatio-temporal dimension, and the development process and evolution characteristics of drought events are studied. Firstly,the drought index and threshold were determined,and then the spatial and tem-poral continuity of the drought event was discriminated. Furthermore, 12 spatio-temporal characteristic vari-ables of the development of the drought event were established to visualize the spatial and temporal charac-teristics of the development of the drought event, including the monthly concentration point of drought, the concentration point of drought in space and time, and the migration rate of drought, etc. Finally, the case study of the meteorological drought event in the Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2015 was carried out. The results show that the drought events occur frequently in spring and summer in the Huaihe River Ba-sin,and the successive drought years in summer,autumn and winter show a rule that originated in the Yi-shusi River Basin, and then turned to the middle reaches of the Huaihe River, and gradually migrated to the upper reaches, and there are more serious characteristics of autumn drought. The intensity of monthly drought is affected by the direction of drought migration. The areas most affected by the drought are mainly located in the northern part of the basin. In the past, the drought intensity showed an increasing trend, while the drought area showed a decreasing trend,and moved to the northwest direction on the whole,and it is expected to move to the northeast direction in the future. This study provides a new method and tech-nique for the comprehensive and detailed analysis of drought development process and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics. |
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