| 程江洲,朱偲,付文龙,熊双菊.基于贝叶斯网络的水力发电系统动态风险评估方法[J].水利学报,2019,50(5):631-640 |
| 基于贝叶斯网络的水力发电系统动态风险评估方法 |
| Dynamic risk assessment method of hydropower system based on Bayesian network |
| 投稿时间：2018-08-18 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180752 |
| 中文关键词: 水力发电系统 动态风险评估 贝叶斯网络 模糊综合评价 狄利克雷模型 |
| 英文关键词: hydropower system dynamic risk assessment Bayesian network fuzzy comprehensive evalua-tion Dirichlet model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51741907）；梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室开放基金（2015KJX05）；湖北省教育厅优秀中青年科技创新团队项目（T201504） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水力发电系统的风险评估对水电站的安全运行有着重要意义。本文结合风险理论与贝叶斯网络，提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的水力发电系统动态风险评估方法。该方法使用专家经验与故障树建立贝叶斯网络结构，对风险事故原因及事故间的因果关系进行有效分析，利用模糊综合评价法计算风险的发生概率以及产生的经济后果、社会后果与环境后果，采用风险等级表与狄利克雷模型对系统进行静态风险分析与动态风险评估，并以7个主要部件为例，建立了水力发电系统的风险评估模型。最后，通过模拟的故障信号对模型进行实时的风险评估，证明了方法的有效性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Considering the lack of research on risk assessment of hydropower system, combined with risk theory and Bayesian network, a dynamic risk assessment method for hydropower system based on Bayesian network is proposed. The method uses expert experience and fault tree to establish Bayesian network struc-ture,and analyzes the cause of risk accidents and the causal relationship between accidents. The fuzzy com-prehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the failure probability of equipment and the corresponding economic, social and environmental consequences. A risk scale and Dirichlet model are established to carry out static risk analysis and dynamic risk assessment of the system. According to the proposed method, the seven major components of the hydropower system are taken as examples to establish a risk assessment mod-el for the hydropower system. Finally, the real-time risk assessment of the model through the simulated fault signal verifies the feasibility of the method. |
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