| 李明超,任秋兵,孔锐,杜胜利,司文.多维复杂关联因素下的大坝变形动态建模与预测分析[J].水利学报,2019,50(6):687-698 |
| 多维复杂关联因素下的大坝变形动态建模与预测分析 |
| Dynamic modeling and prediction analysis of dam deformation under multidimensional complex relevance |
| 投稿时间：2019-05-04 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190304 |
| 中文关键词: 大坝变形监控模型 复杂关联性 动态建模方法 因子相关性 动态因果关系 序列相似性 |
| 英文关键词: dam deformation monitoring model complex relevance dynamic modeling method factor corre-lation dynamic causality time series similarity |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目（51879185）；国家优秀青年科学基金项目（51622904）；国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0406905） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 大坝变形监控模型是多维复杂关联性以数学形式表达的集成载体，因而合理量化和集成关联性有利于更加全面而准确地构建数学模型。本文着重从维度、关联、检验、措施及模型五个层面依次对因子相关性、动态因果关系和序列相似性三种关联性进行阐述，提出了一种兼顾相关性和相似性的大坝变形动态监控模型。该模型以环境因子与大坝变形间的因果关系为基础，分别采用耦合相关性诊断方法、动态最大信息系数和标准化动态时间规整算法度量因子相关性、动态因果关系和序列相似性，并通过非线性模型建立、动态输入修正和交叉多输出改进将多维复杂关联性统一于大坝变形动态建模框架中。以西南地区某混凝土坝工程多测点变形监测数据为例，通过多模型性能对比仿真实验对所提方法的有效性和准确性进行了验证评估。结果表明，与常规模型相比，集成多维复杂关联性的大坝变形动态监控模型的预测性能尤佳，以期为大坝变形安全预报提供一种新型建模方法。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The dam deformation monitoring model is an integrated carrier of multidimensional complex rele-vance expressed in mathematical form. The reasonable quantification and integration of relevance are condu-cive to a more comprehensive and accurate mathematical model. To this end, this paper focuses on the three relevance of factor correlation,dynamic causality and time series similarity from five aspects of dimen-sion, relevance, test, measure and model, and proposes a dynamic monitoring model for dam deformation that takes into account both correlation and similarity. Based on the causal relationship between environmen-tal factors and dam deformation, the model is developed by using the coupling correlation diagnosis meth-od, dynamic maximal information coefficient and normalized dynamic time warping algorithm separately to measure factor correlation, dynamic causality and time series similarity. The multidimensional complex rele-vance is unified in the dynamic modeling framework of dam deformation through the establishment of nonlin-ear model,dynamic input correction and cross multiple output improvement. Taking the multi-point deforma-tion monitoring data of a concrete dam in southwest China as an example, a comparison of the multi-mod-el performance was made by simulation experiment to verify and evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. The results show that, compared with conventional models, the dynamic monitoring model for dam deformation with integrated multidimensional complex relevance has better prediction perfor-mance,which provides an alternative modeling method for dam deformation safety prediction. |
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