| 李超超,程晓陶,王艳艳,付德宇.洪涝灾害三参数损失函数的构建Ⅰ——基本原理[J].水利学报,2020,51(3):349-357 |
| 洪涝灾害三参数损失函数的构建Ⅰ——基本原理 |
| A three-parameter flood damage function, part Ⅰ. Theory and development |
| 投稿时间：2019-11-24 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190824 |
| 中文关键词: 洪涝灾害风险 演变趋势 驱动机制 S型曲线 损失-重现期函数 |
| 英文关键词: flood disaster risk evolution trend driving mechanism S-shaped curve flood damage-return period function |
| 基金项目:西部一流重大创新项目（ZKZD2017002）；国家自然科学青年基金项目（51809143）；宁夏青年科技人才托举工程项目（TJGC2019041） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为把握快速城镇化、社会经济增长、防洪工程标准提高背景下暴雨洪涝灾害风险的演变趋势，基于洪水风险理论及城市洪涝灾害的连锁性与损失突变性特征，探讨了洪涝灾害风险演变驱动机制，构建了具有物理意义的三参数洪涝灾害损失-重现期（D-R）风险函数，明确了曲线形态中临界洪灾损失值Dc、临界重现期Rc、区域脆弱性综合指数k等控制参数的物理意义。该函数可作为洪涝灾害风险评估与预测的一种便捷手段，找到洪涝灾害风险演化的转折点，可为防灾减灾决策提供依据，同时也可应用于对防洪工程体系减灾效益的评估。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to describe the evolution trend of flood risk under the background of social economic growth, rapid urbanization, and improvement of flood control standards, the driving mechanism of flood disaster risk evolution is discussed on the basis of the flood risk theory,chain-reaction and mutability of urban flood damage. The flood damage-return period function is analyzed as S-shaped curve with three parameters. critical damage Dc, critical return period Rc and regional integrated vulnerability index k, respectively. The function can be used as a simple and fast method for flood risk assessment, prediction, and flood risk reduction benefits assessment. The turning points of the curve provide scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction decision-making. |
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