文章摘要
李超超,程晓陶,王艳艳,付德宇.洪涝灾害三参数损失函数的构建Ⅱ——实例研究[J].水利学报,2020,51(5):519-526
洪涝灾害三参数损失函数的构建Ⅱ——实例研究
A three-parameter flood damage function,part Ⅱ. Case study
投稿时间:2019-11-24  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190825
中文关键词: 太湖流域  洪涝灾害  S型曲线  损失-重现期函数  风险预测  风险分级
英文关键词: Taihu Basin  flood disaster risk  S-shaped curve  flood damage-return period function  risk forecasting  risk classification
基金项目:西部一流重大创新项目(ZKZD2017002);国家自然科学青年基金项目(51809143);宁夏青年科技人才托举工程项目(TJGC2019041)
作者单位
李超超 宁夏大学 土木与水利工程学院, 宁夏 银川 750021 
程晓陶 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038 
王艳艳 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038 
付德宇 宁夏首创海绵城市建设发展有限公司, 宁夏 固原 756000 
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中文摘要:
      为了验证三参数洪涝灾害损失函数构建方法的合理性与适用性,以高度城镇化的太湖流域为对象开展实例研究。以现状与未来情景下太湖流域的洪涝灾害评估结果作为洪涝损失-重现期曲线构建样本,选取3组函数构建了太湖流域洪涝灾害风险函数。对3组函数的拟合结果进行对比,选择最优S型函数作为预测模型,并且根据函数转折点对洪灾风险进行了分级。研究表明,基于Gompertz函数的损失-重现期函数曲线对洪涝灾害损失的变化规律有较好的适应性,对未来洪水风险演变的预测较为合理。
英文摘要:
      In order to verify the rationality and applicability of the three-parameter flood damage function, the highly urbanized Taihu Basin is taken as a research area. The flood simulation results for the Taihu Ba-sin under different socio-economic scenario were taken as samples to construct S-shaped flood disaster D-R function. By comparing the fitting results of the three risk functions,the most suitable S-shaped func-tion was selected as the prediction model, and the flood analysis was classified according to the turning points of the function. The results show that flood damage model based on Gompertz function has better co-incidence with variation of flood damage and reasonable prediction of future flood risk evolution trend.
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