文章摘要
杨蕊,吴时强,高学平,张晨.基于Vine Copula函数的河湖连通水环境多因子联合风险识别研究[J].水利学报,2020,51(5):606-616
基于Vine Copula函数的河湖连通水环境多因子联合风险识别研究
A vine copula-based study on identification of multivariate water environmental risk under different connectivity of rivers and lakes
投稿时间:2019-08-27  
DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190606
中文关键词: 河湖连通工程  水环境风险  多因子联合分布  Vine Copula  风险识别
英文关键词: river and lake connection project  water environmental risk  joint distribution of multiple fac-tors  vine copulas  risk identification
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407203);国家自然科学基金(51679160)
作者单位E-mail
杨蕊 天津大学 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300350
南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210029 
 
吴时强 南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210029  
高学平 天津大学 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300350  
张晨 天津大学 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300350 emil@tju.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      河湖连通工程是水资源调配和水生态环境保护与修复的重要途经,同时作为一个包含着模糊性、随机性、灰色性以及未确知性信息的复杂系统工程,其不可避免地存在一定的风险。本文基于Vine Copula函数构建了南四湖在南水北调东线一期工程运行前后水环境多因子联合风险模型,通过对总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH3-N)和叶绿素a(Chl-a)4种风险因子的敏感性分析,识别出运行后的关键风险因子;结合南四湖Ⅲ类水的供水水质要求,设置了运行后关键风险因子不同风险状态(即Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类)组合下的系列风险情景,识别出运行后潜在水环境多因子联合风险。结果表明:TN、NH3-N、Chl-a为关键风险因子;当TN和NH3-N达到Ⅴ类水标准限值、Chl-a为35 μg·L-1时,工程运行后水环境联合风险变化速率增大,不确定性提高,需及时响应,建议重点关注TN和NH3-N指标。
英文摘要:
      Changing the connectivity of rivers and lakes by hydraulic projects is an important way to allo-cate water resources, protect and restore water ecological environment. With all the connected rivers, lakes and projects, a complex system full of fuzzy, random, gray and uncertain information is composed, which inevitably has some risks. According to the data monitored before and after the operation of South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Project, two multivariate water environmental risk models of Nansi Lake us-ing Vine Copula was constructed respectively in this paper. After that, the sensitivity analysis of four risk factors including total phosphorus, total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen and chlorophyll-a was conducted. As a result, the key risk factors (TN、NH3-N、Chl-a) were identified after the operation of the project. In addi-tion,as the water quality requirement of Nansi lake is class Ⅲ,a series of risk scenarios combining differ-ent states (namely, class Ⅳ and class Ⅴ) of the identified key risk factors are set to identify the poten-tial multivariate water environmental risk after the operation of the project. The results show that when the concentration of TN and NH3-N reach the standard limit value of class Ⅴ and Chl-a is 35 μg·L-1, the multivariate water environmental risk change rate increases after the operation of the project, which also means the uncertainty increase. Therefore, timely response is required and more attention need to be paid on TN and NH3-N.
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