| 刘晓燕,王瑞玲,张原锋,黄锦辉,申冠卿,葛雷.黄河河川径流利用的阈值[J].水利学报,2020,51(6):631-641 |
| 黄河河川径流利用的阈值 |
| Threshold of the runoff utilization of the Yellow River |
| 投稿时间：2019-10-31 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20190765 |
| 中文关键词: 黄河 径流利用 阈值 生态需水 输沙需水 |
| 英文关键词: Yellow River runoff utilization threshold ecological water requirement water requirement for sediment transport |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0402403） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在黄河来沙大幅减少、社会经济耗用水量不断增加的背景下，调整1987年颁布的黄河可供水量分水方案，逐渐成为热点问题，黄河径流利用的阈值显然是调整分水方案时必须考虑的因素。本文认为，如果调整分水方案，不仅要考虑预留输沙用水，还要考虑1980年代末考虑的黄河口三角洲生态需水，而且使用输沙用水应达到的河床维护目标也须由当时的"允许下游淤积4亿t/a"提高到"维持下游河槽过流能力≥ 4000 m3/s"；此外，调整分水方案还要考虑现状水库群仍难以调蓄的洪水。利用实测数据，本文分析了河口三角洲淡水湿地、近海鱼虾繁殖、黄河鱼类繁衍生息、下游嫩滩湿地和维持下游现状河槽冲淤平衡对黄河径流条件的要求，提出了在不同来沙条件和年内不同时段用水时需预留的生态流量和生态水量。基于对未来不同时期的黄河水沙情势判断，并考虑了难以调蓄的洪水后，分别在规划和调度层面提出了黄河径流利用的阈值，其中2020-2050年黄河可供水量不超过330亿m3、沙量反弹至2.5亿t/a以上后可供水量更少。在生态环境和径流调控工具的双约束下，预计未来大部分年份黄河将很难支撑人类用水的进一步增长，遇连续枯水年时情况更严重。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the context of dramatic reduction of sediment and increasing water consumption of social and economic development in the Yellow River,the adjustment of the water allocation plan of the available water supply for the Yellow River issued in 1987 has gradually become a hot issue, and then the threshold of the runoff utilization of the Yellow River is definitely the key problem that must be considered when adjusting the water distribution scheme. According to this paper, if the water allocation plan is adjusted, it is necessary to consider not only the reserved water for sediment transport, but also the healthy water demand of the delta area that was not considered in the 1980s. Moreover, the riverbed maintenance target achieved by sediment transport water for the lower Yellow River should be increased from the "allowable deposition of 400 million t/a" to "maintaining the flow capacity of the downstream river channel ≥ 4000 m3/s". In addition, the adjustment of the water allocation plan should also take into account the floods that are still difficult to regulate in the current reservoir group. Using the measured data,this paper analyzes the requirements of the estuary delta freshwater wetland, offshore fish and shrimp breeding, the Yellow River fish breeding, the downstream floodplain wetland and the maintenance of the downstream river channel scouring and silting balance on the Yellow River runoff,and proposes the ecological flow and ecological water volume that should be reserved in different sediment conditions and different time periods of the year. Based on the runoff and sediment situation of the Yellow River in different periods in the future,and considering the flood that is difficult to adjust, the threshold of runoff utilization of the Yellow River is proposed at the planning and scheduling levels respectively,among which the water supply of the Yellow River will not exceed 33 billion m3 from 2020 to 2050, and even less when the sediment rebounding. Under the dual constraints of ecological environment and runoff regulation, it is expected that the Yellow River will be unable to support the further increase of human water consumption in most years in the future. In the case of continuous dry years,the situation would be more serious. |
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